On January 9th we bought VXX and TZA while cautioning:
"Markets haven't had a turn downward worth mention since the end of 2015,
and 2017 especially hasn't been kind to short sellers. 2018 should be
very different, and a significant top seems imminent."
Stocks collapsed a few weeks later, while
VXX and
TZA skyrocketed.
We still have
this double short on the Toronto Stock Exchange's top 60 stocks via HXD which we'd forgotten to include in our list of current open positions.
This
excellent article by John Hussman posted in late January is worth keeping in mind, in which he states:
"I expect the S&P 500 to lose approximately two-thirds of its value over the completion of this cycle."
On January 31 we posted the observation that
"U.S. financial conditions index signals extreme risk", noting
"the two prior extremes signaled stock market and business cycle tops."
Indeed, a long-term bear market seems to have begun just days later.
February 02 we were jubilant and emphatic:
"Stocks are nowhere near sanely valued by any reasonable measure."
That was proven true and it is still true today.
Our GMA position remains open. Despite rising as much as 113% above our entry, we still hold it and it's currently fallen back down to roughly break-even.
In early February we sold two positions in VXX for gains of 100% and 68% in less than two months!
A few days later we sold a TZA position for a gain of 35% in two weeks.
At its apex,
KTR was up almost 500% in just a few months after we bought it.
We ended up
netting an average gain of 257% while around that time breaking even on GEMC (though it offered a gain of 59% at one point) and losing 15% on WMR.
Later in the year, when
we netted a gain of 550% on CBS we suggested that
KTR looked to be at a good reentry level since it had fallen considerably since we'd sold it.
Six weeks later KTR was 100% higher and we suggested booking those gains too.
Getting back to the 1st quarter of the year, in early March we entered what proved to be
a very well-timed short of the euro via DRR.
In April we were still long the
British pound via
a perfectly-timed buy in 2017, and raised the stop which was eventually hit for a gain of 14%
In May we took a levered long position in the Swiss franc, which went up as much as 11% though we still hold it currently at a slight loss.
We did very well with other currecny plays this year however, in August netting 6.4% long the
U.S. dollar, 35% via a 4x long
USD vs
euro position, plus 16% and 15% respectively via two
euro double-shorts.
In April we closed one of our three
chocolate positions for
a 30% gain and on another
we scored 42%
We still have the 3rd
NIB position open for the longer term without a stop in place.
Speaking of tasty treats, our
coffee positions may be a bit confusing.
We bought JO in 2017 and
added to it in 2018. This eventually became
JJOFF, and later
JO came back to life although it as a different coffee-related instrument with a similar name.
So our average cost for the two
JJOFF positions is $16.44 while it last traded at $10.81 Not good. We'll continue to hold with no stop in mind as yet, preferring to add when the timing seems better.
In May we drew attention to the fact that
LL was up over 100% from our entry, and while it looked like it might stage a break-out on the chart instead it faltered and we eventually sold it when it broke below its up trend, as we'd said we would, for what turned out to be a 50% gain.
We may move back into this one when markets seem stronger.
Through the summer months we mostly outlined the bearish case for
Tesla, which we remain double-short and believe to be a stellar position to have through 2019, while adding to precious metals-related positions and general stock market index short positions. We'll get to all of those below.
In early October
we added several names to our
existing uranium positions. These remain open,
as does CVV which we added a few days later.
Still holding PTU, too.
On October 09 we bought Chinese electric car maker NIO and had the good fortune to see it trading 26% higher just hours later, but over time it's been volatile and is currently a bit below our entry, with
our updated stop not too far below.
GTT also shot far higher shortly after
we bought it on October 10th for $0.94
By the 29th it was 128% above our entry, hitting $2.15
A few weeks later
it hit our revised stop for a gain of 54% then plunged much lower, mostly recently trading at $0.66
It could enjoy another run, so we recently reentered GTT at $0.62
We still hold
EAS at an average cost of $0.07
It last traded at $0.06 and reiterate that it
"seems a good speculation if it trades above $0.10"
We still hold ARU and ARG with no change in our assessment.
So too ANG.
Also UGD.
And GNG.
October 11 we sold 2 of 5 of
VXX positions, 1 of 5
TZA positions, and 1 of 2
QID positions for average gain of 18.5% each.
On the 17th October we brought to your attention three resource penny stocks breaking down trends.
SIR was stopped out for a gain of 87% just two weeks later, after rising as much as 300% during that short interim!
SBW and IMT remain in play as suggested.
October 24 we sold another
TZA position for a gain of 47% in 2 months.
October 26 booked 20% on another
VXX position.
October 29 booked 25% in 2 months on remaning
QID position.
That day we finally opened a
market long position via TNA, which we sold for a gain of 19% just 9 days later.
CRE gained 11% for us while PLU didn't work out, costing us 21%. It didn't rise above our suggested buy level however, so that shouldn't have cost readers anything. We'll reconsider
PLU if it breaks the current down trend.
SVE cost us too, and has put salt in the wound by rising again recently. We're back in at $0.20 with a stop at $0.12
Still holding PWM and Toro, and
our Tesla short was later doubled for an average of $358.
Shorting
Tesla and
shorting junk bonds via SJB we expect will bring continued market success in 2019.
With respect to markets overall,
this prophetic post remains fully in effect.
Still holding HUD.
As a result of stocks tanking however, we were
stopped out of Livent (LTHM) for a loss of 16.5% We'll definitely buy back in when the timing and chart looks better. We
lost a similar amount on LRA (16.6%) and
on the bitcon (16.7%).
Things got back to normal in December.
On the 17th we sold a 3rd
TZA position for a gain of 41% and bought a
swing position in TNA.
On the 19th we sold a 3rd
VXX position for a gain of 49% while adding to
TNA.
On the 20th we sold our 2nd
TZA position for a gain of 31% while again adding to
TNA to make that three positions at an average of $44.35
On any major bounce in stocks we'll be selling
TNA.
On the 21st we sold our 1st
VXX position for a gain of 41%. This post is contains our current summary of major long and short positions (other than
HDX, per above).
Our
precious metals-related positions are
summarized here.
