What Went Wrong With Eclipse?

Excellent article: What went wrong with Eclipse?

"A disaster of this size has many causes, but the most fundamental was a fantasy about the economics of designing, building and supporting airplanes. The company also predicted impossibly low empty weights, which then led to unattainable performance and range predictions, and it expected to accomplish all of this in record setting time.

[...]

We had seen magical things from the electronics industry, and electronic pioneers were part of Eclipse, so maybe their Silicon Valley knowledge could do the impossible in aviation. It was so compelling everyone wanted to believe. And thousands did.  

[...]

Eclipse founders were different from the established aviation industry in other ways, including an attitude that because they were right, the rest of us had to be wrong. "

Sounds like Tesla?

Amazing Article: Can Tesla Reinvent The Way Cars Are Made?

“I’ve never heard anything like this, ever,” said Ron Harbour, an expert on auto plants.



We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, me, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.

TZA, SJB, Frightening Momentum Chart Study, TSLA

TZA has broken above a downtrend stretching back to summer of 2016.

We have several TZA positions.

SJB has broken above a downtrend on arithmetic scale dating back to February of this year, while at the same time breaking above a downtrend on logarithmic scale stretching back to October of 2011.  Seems bullish.

We have four existing positions in SJB already, and today added a 5th at $23.15

If you do not yet have SJB or have been thinking of adding more, now's a good time to buy.

Weekly, Monthly and Quarterly momentum measures in equities continue to deteriorate, and with the close of the 2nd Quarter today we can offer this compelling observation:

The arrows indicate the past 5 times that current momentum data was observed, such as exists today.

Possibly "this time it's different" but we doubt it, especially given underlying fundamentals are generally much worse than what was in evidence the past four times we had a similar setup.

Telsa Motors lost yet another key executive.

Related reading here, in a post from a week ago.



We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, me, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.

How Low? Bitcoin, Gold and Equities Bubbles in Sync. TZA Chart

It's interesting when there's a correlation in bubbles, especially when they pop.   

Below we present a 1-year chart of the bitcon [sic] with a 1-year chart of the DJIA below it for comparison. 

We've shifted the DJIA to the left by about a month (noted via the blue line and ovals), so that the January pop in the stocks bubble is lined up with the December pop of the bitcoin bubble (noted by the thick vertical red line in the middle).

The thinner vertical red line on the right draws attention to the fact that for the past month bitcoin prices have dropped significantly, to new lows for the year.

It's very reasonable to expect stocks will also soon post new lows for the year.

And then some.

Here's another set of charts, showing the NASDAQ bust of 2000 on a weekly scale, with the current chart of the S&P 500 in daily scale aligned beneath it.  Below those, we've put a gold chart in monthly scale.

Now, does this pattern look familiar?

The purpose is simply to show that all cycles of boom and bust look very similar when charted.

Today the DJIA has posted its third consecutive close below its 200-day moving average for the first time in over two years.  Please consider that it's perfectly reasonable to expect all major indexes to drop to at least the respective 200-week moving average.

For the S&P 500 that'd take a 16% drop from its present level.  For the NASDAQ that'd take a 25% drop, and a 20% drop for the RUSSELL 2000.  For the DJIA an 18% drop.

Such moves would likely result in our levered short positions doubling, or more.

We're not stating that will happen.  To do so would be totally irresponsible since no one can know the future.

We do know the past however, and what we are stating is that such moves would be totally normal and unsurprising as evidenced by the charts above. 

TZA 2-Year Chart, showing established down trend in green likely soon to be broken:



We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, me, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.

Bad News

Tuesday the DJIA closed below its 200-day moving average for the 2nd day in a row.

That's the first successive two-day close below this key moving average since March of 2016.

There was just one single-day close below the 200-day moving average since then, which was in June of 2016.

Bridgewater Associates, the largest hedge fund in the world, recently issued a warning in a leaked private message to clients, "2019 is setting up to be a dangerous period for the economy [but] for investors the danger is already here."

Bloomberg has warned that America is headed for "something economically worse than the Great Recession".

American citizens are swimming in a $13.6 trillion debt pool, $1.5 trillion in student loans, and mortgage debts worse than before the 2008 crash.

Citibank has cautioned, "it's eerily reminiscent of the mortgage crisis."

The tech IPO market is superheated. 75% of companies making initial public offerings of stock are losing money yet 80% of IPO's in 2018 are trading above their respective IPO price.

Such speculative froth hasn't been seen since the top of the dot-com mania in 2000.

In the fullness of time current market levels should prove to be extreme peaks in valuations.

All technical, fundamental, seasonal and logical indicators point to "lower lows" to come for stocks in the intermediate and long term, and this continues to look like the typical action attending a lasting market top while Monthly Momentum remains on pace to become negative this summer.

See this post from early April on Monthly Momentum. 

Unless there's a massive rally during the rest of this week, Quarterly Momentum in the DJIA will turn downward for the first time since late 2014 which also happened just preceeding the four largest market drops of the past 20 years.


And in news of the ongoing Tesla exposé : The Future Of Tesla Hinges On This Gigantic Tent

NTSB Says Tesla Battery Reignited Twice After Fatal Florida Crash



We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, me, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.

Buying JNUG

Following up on the "Buying USLV" post of over a month ago, we'll enter a position in JNUG in order to increase our effective precious metals exposure when it trades to $13.85 or higher.

JNUG: "The Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Bull 3X Shares provides daily 3x exposure to an index of junior gold and silver mining companies from developed as well as emerging markets."

Sentiment against gold and silver has become bearish to a statistical extreme, so we're happy to accumulate bullish positions without a sell stop for the time being.



We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, me, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.

Global DOW Hits 7-Month Low

The Global DOW is "a 150-stock index of corporations from around the world, created by Dow Jones & Company."

"The Global Dow tracks leading companies in all industries, selected not just for current size and reputation but also for their potential. It covers both developed and emerging markets. In addition, it includes companies from emerging sectors, such as alternative energy. The components are equally weighted, which means that price movements of the larger stocks have no greater impact on index performance than those of the smaller stocks."

It's at its lowest level of the past 7 months:

On a longer-term chart, we see that it's a very long way down to what might be initial support (in green):

J.P. Morgan (JPM) posted its lowest close of the past 7 months too.  At the same time, Goldman Sachs (GS) is at it's lowest level of the past 9.5 months. 

Simply, we're not going to see a significant or sustained stock market rally as long as key financial stocks, plus the DJIA and the Global DOW, are down for the year. 

These two recent posts remain relevant:

Monthly Momentum Rollover Pending

DJIA Chart Study



We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, me, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.

Adding VXX, Mocking TSLA

Two months ago we stepped toward restoring our full VXX triple position, after selling 2/3 of it back in February for massive gains.

Today we repurchased the third VXX position at $33.00  

VXX closed today at $33.06


We don't plan to stop out of shorts unless the DJIA, the Global DOW Index, and major financial stocks such as Goldman Sachs (GS), J.P. Morgan (JPM), Bank Of America (BAC), Citigroup (C) are closing back above their respective break-even levels for 2018.


It's a privilege and a pleasure to watch one of history's great (apparent) frauds on both "investors" and taxpayers, and (apparently) sociopathic cult leaders go down in flames before our eyes.

Tesla's Executive Departure List: Bailing the Sinking Ship

Tesla Automotive segment gross margins may be overstated, says Bernstein

Tesla's Constant Turmoil Can't Hide The Fact That SolarCity Is Dying



We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, me, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.

The Share of Household Financial assets currently invested in equities is close to an all-time high

This is what the stock-market indicator with the best track record is telling us.



We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, me, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.

Silver Chart Study

Today we post a silver chart study to follow up on our recent post in re: buying USLV.

On the chart above we see a multi-year down trend in red broken in late 2014 and since shortly thereafter silver has gone essentially sideways.

A nearly 10-year up trend is in place, shown in green, and a two year down trend in black is in effect.

If silver trades above $17 that down trend will be broken and massive upside potential is evident given current sentiment readings (not shown) and Commitment Of Traders data (shown in our previous post).

Of course this also impacts gold, since gold and silver typically move in tandem.

Gold's "line in the sand" is roughly $1400, however we must be bullish so long as gold is trading above $1300.

As of this writing, gold is $1298 while silver is $16.50



We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, me, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.