Riding The Gravy Train: August 2010

Riding The Gravy Train

Beating the market is fun and profitable. This is how we do it.

Tuesday, August 03, 2010

selling VZ covered calls, selling URR +23%

Via past covered call sales and the dividends realized on our Verizon shares we've reduced our effective price to $28.50

We now again sell covered calls, the October 2010 $27 strike which was last bid at $2.71 and last traded at $2.68

URR is up 23% since our buy in early June (see below post dated June 08), at a time when the world was bearish on the Euro. We're seeing increasing calls for the Euro to resume falling, which probably means it'll go much higher. However 23% in less than 2 months on top of the gains made previously on being bullish the US Dollar while the world was bearish, is too good not to book so we seek to exit this position in the near term and become currency neutral for awhile.

Note that gold has broken an 18-month uptrend, as seen in the 1st chart below. The incessant hype and rationalizing can't keep the price up, and it is widely reported that several central banks are now buying gold which is a strong contrarian indicator.

At some time in the future, the lower uptrend illustrated in the 2nd chart below will be met, and it seems very likely this will be at a much lower level than the current price. Readers of our newsletter service (details below, in the post dated June 08) have been been double-short gold since July 13.







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