Riding The Gravy Train: January 2016

Riding The Gravy Train

Beating the market is fun and profitable. This is how we do it.

Thursday, January 21, 2016

Considering The Gold / Silver Ratio

There appears to be a "triple-top" formation in the 15-year gold/silver ratio:


Provided there's a reversal as there has been in the past, that'll mean gold will go up at a slower pace relative to silver (which we believe will be the case), or gold will fall at a faster pace relative to silver. 

We're long NUGT per this blog, however a pure play on metals would be via items such as GLD, DGP, SLV, AGQ, USLV the difference being gold or silver and varying degrees of leverage.  We do also hold levered gold and silver longs, not diarized in this blog.


Related recent posts:

Equities Finally Somewhat Oversold, Long NUGT, OKS, UCO

Gold And Silver Charts

Another Look At Gold

Reducing DEE +166% , Market Update, Gold Update, Entering NUGT




We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained in herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.


Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Equities Finally Somewhat Oversold, Long NUGT, OKS, UCO

Late in 2015 we reiterated our bearish outlook for equities several times:

November 30 - "Junk Bonds A Bad Omen"

December 14 - "Reasons To Remain Bearish"

December 16 - "Margin Debt At An Extreme"

December 19 - "All Wrong, And Gold. UCO Update"


Over the month since then, the DJIA is down roughly 2300 points or 13%.  This has been the worst start to a calendar year in all of stock market history.

On a short-term basis, and only on a short-term basis, equities are now oversold.  On a long-term basis stocks are nowhere near oversold.  The DJIA also may be at some forms of technical support as shown on the charts below.



With that stated, we're prepared to speculate. 

Of NUGT, in the December 19 post linked above, we wrote; "It may take awhile to get the entry right, however once we do it'll be very memorably profitable." 

We entered the position a few days later at $25 with a stop that was hit at $22 a few days ago for a loss of 12%.  It's now down to $18 as of this writing and we're going long again with a stop on an intra-day basis at $16

UCO we purchased two days later at $12.20, losing almost 6% when our stop was hit at $11.50  It's much lower now at $6.50 and we're going long again with an intra-day stop at $5.50

OKS currently yields 13.9% (trading at $22.80 with a $0.79/qtr dividend) and we're going long as it too may be at or near some technical support as seen below. 

Certainly it's bullish that while many of its peers, including our holdings of WPZ and ETP, are far below where they were in mid-December and at risk of cutting their dividends, OKS is still above its mid-December lows in large part because it reaffirmed its dividend for 2016

While there are certainly no guarantees and all market exposure is speculation, that press release is a welcome assurance in this dire market environment - especially within the oil and gas sector.  No stop on OKS, as we're looking to hold for long-term dividends and hopefully capital appreciation.






We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained in herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.