Riding The Gravy Train: March 2020

Riding The Gravy Train

Beating the market is fun and profitable. This is how we do it.

Wednesday, March 25, 2020

Selling SPXL and UDOW, Netting +30% and +40% Within A Week


We opened a position in SPXL Monday at the open.

Now just two days later it's up 30%. 


We opened a position in UDOW a week ago.

It's already up 39.5%


We're booking those exceptional short-term gains.






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Sunday, March 22, 2020

Selling SJB, Buying SPXL



"SJB provides inverse exposure, reset daily, to a modified market-value-weighted index comprising US-dollar-denominated corporate high-yield bonds with maturities between 3 and 15 years." - ETF.com




Knowing with absolute certainty it's only a matter of "when", not "if", we've accumulated an unprecedented seven positions over time in SJB:

1 - September 2016 @ $25.30

2 - October 2016 @ $24.98

3 - October 2017 @ $23.18

4 - February 2018 @ $23.30

5 - October 2018 @ $22.77

6 - November 2018 @ $23.03

7 - July 2019 @ $21.42

Several times we stated: "We don't suggest SJB will rise spectacularly however, since it is not a levered inverse instrument.  Instead the attraction to us is that this seems as close to a "sure thing" as it ever gets, ergo a great place to put funds as the bear market in general equities unfolds."

We'll offer only that 7th position for sale for $25 or better.

SJB closed Friday at $25.41



We're speculating on a near term stock market rally via SPXL at tomorrow's open.

"SPXL provides daily leveraged exposure to the S&P 500, an index of mostly large-cap US equities." - per ETF.com

No stop.  If it drops significantly, we'll average in at lower prices and we'll post if or when we do.





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Wednesday, March 18, 2020

Covering all TSLA, Long NUGT, ACB, NBEV, UDOW


We've been triple short TSLA at an average of $355.

It's trading now at $357.

Covering all three positions for roughly break-even.

It's proven good to be short garbage the past month.

Now we fear a major market bounce, however we do not fear Tesla is a quality stock or a reputable company with trustworthy accounting, so we aspire to short it again, heavily, in due time, hopefully at a much higher price.

If we were wrong about the stock, we were wrong in not taking some profits off the table when a massive gain was available (per link above) and in not adding considerably to our short positions when it went parabolic earlier this year. 


Going long at current prices:

NUGT  $8.78

ACB  $0.62

NBEV  $1.04

UDOW  $29.75




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Monday, March 16, 2020

Impotent Foolish Fed. Buying SLB, AMLP, LL, FNMA, STNG, USLV


The U.S Federal Reserve is impotent.

Always was.

With respect to interest rates, all the Fed does is follow bond market rates.

Contrary to popular myth and belief, the Fed doesn't set or control rates.

The only things that matter in markets are sentiment and margin, which are essentially the same thing, and now many have very ugly measures of both.

When the Fed timed its actions well and people still had faith in the canard that it could control rates and thereby support markets, the illusion was maintained.

With the exceptionally imbecilic timing of the foolish Fed yesterday, the illusion may be shattered and for the astute that is a far more frightening thing - at least financially - than any virus or recession.

MSN: Stock Futures Drop Limit Down Even As Fed Slashes Rates


Will markets be closed by authorities?

If so, how will the reckless get bailed out by the sober few who saved their money, kept out of debt, and are willing to bail the imprudent out of their market follies at the slightly sane pricing we finally see today after so many years of patiently waiting?

They never issue trading halts when prices are rising astronomically and unsupportably, as happened most of the past decade.  Funny, that.


So long as markets are operational, we'll buy the following at the open this morning:

SLB - "Schlumberger is the world's leading oilfield services provider. Cutting-edge solutions for reservoir characterization, drilling, production & processing."

AMLP - "The fund provides exposure to the AMZI Index, which is a capped, float-adjusted, capitalization-weighted composite of energy infrastructure Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) that earn the majority of their cash flow from midstream activities including the transportation, storage, and processing of energy commodities."

LL (adding a 2nd position) - "Lumber Liquidators Flooring Company is the nation's largest specialty retailer of hardwood flooring. Shop laminate flooring, handscraped and engineered hardwood, bamboo floors, cork, vinyl & more at incredibly low prices."

FNMA - "Fannie Mae serves the people who house America. We are a leading source of financing for mortgage lenders and our financing makes sustainable homeownership and workforce rental housing a reality for millions of Americans."

STNG - "Scorpio Tankers owns and operates first class tonnage consisting of the latest generation of fuel efficient tanker vessels from quality shipyards."

USLV - "USLV is a 3x leveraged product intended for single-day bets on the silver market, not for long-term allocation."


Yes, these are surprising, perhaps stupid, or brave ... perplexing? ... things to buy, at a time when the entire world is an an unprecedented panic for one reason or other.

Yes, these are exceptionally high risk.  All market activity is speculation, and the fair value for a lot of listings on today's stock markets is zero.

High risk?  Definitely.

High reward?  Time will tell.

If in doubt, stay out!

Nothing ventured, nothing lost.

However, fortune favors the bold.

No stops on these, given current market conditions.  If prices drop materially in coming days, weeks, or months, we may buy more.




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Thursday, March 12, 2020

Covering PLCE


We're short PLCE from $102.50 since last summer.



It closed at $33.87 today, representing a gain of 67% in 10 months, and while we won't be surprised to see it go far lower someday we prefer to step aside for the time being.

Perhaps we'll short it again in the future.

Buying PLCE to cover at the open.



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Historic Day, Stocks Short-Term Oversold



Posted in November: "A few years of gains, even a decade's worth, being erased in a quick reversion is not historically uncommon."

Welcome back to 2017!

 
Posted early January: "The time will come when we will all learn a lot more about the true value of intangibles."



After a one-day drop not seen since 1987, added to the amazing past few weeks of markets plunging rapidly, stocks finally seem short-term oversold.




As a bonus, cryptos showed how "valuable" they truly are when the going gets tough:



It couldn't have been a better day, week, or past month for those who've remained prudent and sane in their market activity, so very patiently waiting years for "someday" when the serially reckless get their due and seeking fair value seems the popular thing to do.

Mama said there'd be days like this.

If history's any indicator - as we always assert that it is - the beatings will continue until valuations improve.




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As Expected


Regular readers of this blog should not be shocked to see stocks at current levels.

Only the speed of the decline is of some surprise, though we've often warned that one of history's most overblown and levered manias would implode in historically spectacular fashion.



Ref:

November 30, 2019 - "What Goes Up..." 

December 27, 2019 - "Adding TVIX"

January 07, 2020 - "Tolling Of The Bell.  TZA and JNUG"
 

Stocks remains grossly overvalued in the long term, however a bounce seems soon due.



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Wednesday, March 11, 2020

Selling More TZA and VXX, Buying LL


We're buying LL (Lumber Liquidators) at the open up to a limit of $8.35 

We believe it to be a long-term value play and will add to it over time if it drops materially, so no stop on this holding.

We're booking more gains at the open on Thursday, if tonight's futures are any indication:


Friday the 28th we clocked average net profits of 68% on two different TVIX positions, 22% on two different TZA positions, 9% on a 3rd TZA, and 5% on a 4th TZA.

Monday March 9th we scored gains of 15% on two different VXX positions and 8% on a 5th TZA holding.


Tomorrow we'll offer for sale:

Our last three VXX holdings, at $41, $47 and $51 respectively.  

Our last two TZA positions, at $70 and $75 respectively.  

If all those sell, we'll still have two QID positions which are unlikely to ever be profitable but at this rate who knows?

We only know that as markets collapse we wish to be much less short those markets, then to reset those positions on major rallies since, no, we are still not long-term bullish.

We are also well underwater on our Tesla shorts, which we'll address in due time.  Nothing has changed with respect to that company, its CEO, or our feelings about it.  All extremely negative.






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Sunday, March 08, 2020

Selling VXX and TZA. Oil.


Following-up on last weekend's post, we're closing out more short positions.

We'll sell one VXX position if it reaches $33.90

We'll sell another VXX position if it reaches $35.60

We'll sell a TZA position if it reaches $63.70


This weekend's action in the oil market by Saudi Arabia will set us up for fantastic gains once again in the oil sector, in due time. 





PLEASE READ DISCLAIMER AT BOTTOM OF PAGE