TBT Stop Raised

 

We note that in the past 30 years, when the long-term yield down trend is hit stocks do poorly.

Certainly we expect stocks to perform very poorly in the coming months and perhaps years. 

Should that be the case it is likely capital will flow into bonds and thus rates will drop, as would our TBT positions.

We're further concerned by the fact that currently there are record short positions against bonds, so we'd be happy to take the quick gain on our third TBT position bought two months ago if it trades below $38. 

If that stop is hit, we'll be holding the two remaining TBT positions without a stop level.
 

 

 

 

 

 



We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, me, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.

Bullish Bears, Excellent Article and Charts

 

James Montier of GMO offers this excellent article (link opens as a .pdf file).

Binged and due to purge:

Debt Charts:

 

 

 

 



We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, me, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.

Kintavar Update (KTR), Up 323%

 

Kintavar is now up 323% from our suggested entry 6 weeks ago.

Quite lucky, considering what most stocks have done recently.

We're raising the stops stated in our most recent update on KTR, now to $0.47 on 1/3 (up from $0.37) and $0.38 on 1/3 (up from $0.22). 

1/3 had already been sold for a gain of roughly 160% from our suggested entry.


 

 

 

 

 



We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, me, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.

Selling 1 of 3 TZA Positions for Significant Short-Term Gain

 

TZA is up over 35% since our recent purchase two weeks ago, trading at $14.70 as of this writing.

We're selling to close 1/3 of our triple-sized position in TZA. 

"Vengeance is mine", sayeth the Bear. 

 

 

 

 

 



We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, me, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.

Big Wave Wipe-Out, The Number of the Bear

 

Surfers of big waves risk terrible wipe-outs. 

Here's a chart of XIV:

Link: XIV is going to be the first big ETF blow-up and Credit Suisse is going to be hit hard

Several major hedge funds had extreme exposure to volatility, and will go bust because of this.  Imagine what that might do to global stock markets.

"The surge in volatility has already claimed one victim: Nomura Europe Finance announced the early redemption of its Next Notes S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Inverse Daily Excess Return Index ETN, which had 32.4 billion yen (approximately $300 million) in assets."

Link: XIV trader: ‘I’ve lost $4 million, 3 years of work and other people’s money’

It's interesting, and perhaps a bit frightening, to note that at the end of the '08 crash the S&P bottomed at 666 and Friday's drop in the DJIA, which may have kicked-off the next big crash, was 666 points.

Those who fail to learn from their mistakes prefer to blame someone or something for the consequences of their imprudence.

Satan didn't cause this recent dip in the markets.  It wasn't politics or "F.B.I. memos" or fear that good news will bring rising interest rates.  The volatile swings of the past few days were not caused by computer trading or "black pools" or any such assertion.  Trading patterns looked exactly the same decades before computers were invented.

Human nature hasn't changed.  Fear and greed are eternal. 

People incessantly buying in a mania driving prices ever higher the past several years wasn't blamed on anything, and people selling in panic because they can't afford to cover their margin debt needs no imaginary bogeyman explanation either.
 
This was very long overdue, as even a casual perusal of posts from the past few weeks or months on this blog will prove.

Boom & bust.  What goes up must come down.  It's not different this time. 

XIV was $5 in late 2011.  It hit a low of $5.50 today.  Many more will go full circle.

 

 

 

 



We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, me, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.

Selling 2 of 3 VXX Positions for Massive Short-Term Gain

 

This morning VXX was up over 100% since our recent purchase a month ago, and up over 68% since our purchase two months ago.

We've sold to close that 2/3 of our triple-sized position in VXX. 

Markets may bounce in the near term, however it's very highly likely that the historic bull market since 2009 is over and it's reasonable to expect a historic bear market to undo most, if not more, of the gains since then. 

Surprises should be to the down side for weeks, months, perhaps years to come.

Should we see evidence that the bull market is not yet over we'll reassess at that time, but in the meantime we retain many short and levered short positions, such as a triple holding of TZA, and will probably add additional short positions when the timing seems ideal.



 

 

 

 

 



We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, me, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.

A Glorious Day In Equities, plus SJB, HXB and Cocoa

 

Six weeks ago we posted our intention of entering a 4th SJB position.

Although it has not yet traded above our intended buy stop level of $23.40, it did cross a 22-month down trend today so we bought SJB to quadruple our holding at $23.30

A nearly 7-year down trend lies not far above, currently at $24.40 

Friday was a glorious day in stocks resulting in the DJIA posting its largest 1-week point drop of the past 9 years. 

Do not be tempted to buy however.  There are no bargains to be had. 

Today's action is just a small blip on the long-term radar, and only brings the senior index back to the level of January 11. 

Stocks are nowhere near sanely valued by any reasonable measure. 

Several weeks like this would be required to bring markets to an "oversold" level on even a short-term basis. 

At the close today, futures were a virtual sea of red.  Better get used to it.

We remain long cocoa via NIB.

Canada’s TSX is back to a level first hit in July of 2014, then reached again in January of 2017.  With a drop equivalent to that of the last two days, it’d be back to a level first reached in early 2008. 

This shows extreme relative weakness to U.S. markets, and we’re happy to remain short via HXD.

 

 

 



We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, me, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.