Riding The Gravy Train: August 2019

Riding The Gravy Train

Beating the market is fun and profitable. This is how we do it.

Wednesday, August 14, 2019

Selling USLV, Gold & Silver Positions Update (including GTT, EAS and JOSE), TZA & VXX


The last major update on our gold and silver-related positions was a month ago.

What a month it's been for precious metals!  One of the best in 8 years, during the best year for gold and silver in 8 years, for which we've been very well positioned far ahead of the pack.



USLV

2 USLV positions remain open, bought at $97.00 and $80.00 (split-adjusted), with no stops in place, one of which is still offered at $93.00

USLV just missed that level today, hitting a high of $92.82

As of this writing silver is up in overnight trading, so it's likely USLV will trade higher tomorrow.

We'll sell that USLV position, originally bought at $80.00, as planned if it hits $93.00 OR if it drops below today's close of $90.65

Originally we had 3 USLV positions.  One was sold in early January 2019 for a gain of 25% in 7 weeks.



JNUG

The 1st of 4 JNUG positions we held was sold in late January for a gain of 28% in 5 months

Per this entry on February 19 we also celebrated a 30% gain on JNUG in 6 months on a previous position.

That left 2 JNUG positions, one from June of last year at $69.25 and another from last August at $60.75 (both split adjusted).
In August we sold the JNUG position which had been bought at $60.75 for a gain of 42% in one year.

On April 22 we bought more JNUG at $37.00 (split adjusted) and sold it in July at $82.90 for a gain of 124% in 3 months.

This leaves one JNUG position, the one bought in June of last year at $69.25



NUGT
 
Per this entry on February 20 we celebrated a 36% gain in 6 months on NUGT.

Originally we had two NUGT positions.  The other was sold in early January for a score of 28% in 4.5 months.

We subsequently bid $15.60 for another position in NUGT.  That bid was hit days later, and we closed that position for a 28% profit in 6 weeks.



On May 10 we suggested NGQ at $1.04 as per the original post

Its ticker changed recently to JOSE, and today it closed at $0.90 CAD

As originally stated, "we'll close our position if it closes below $0.90 CAD".



GTT, EAS

GTT shot skyward shortly after we bought it on October 10th for $0.94

Two weeks later it was 128% above our entry, hitting $2.15

A few weeks after that, it dropped to hit our revised stop for a gain of 54%

It subsequently plunged much lower, and we repurchased GTT at $0.62 late last year.

It's now 95% higher.

We're placing a stop on this position, selling if it trades below $1.00 CAD



We still hold EAS at an average cost of $0.07 

It enjoyed a stellar day today, reaching $0.125 and closing at $0.11

We'll hold on to this one, and any other penny stocks relating to gold or silver, so long as the current mania in precious metals seems ongoing.



On April 22 we posted in bold: "If you're not short stocks, it's a great time to buy TZA and VXXB which trade at $47.60 (split-adjusted) and $25.45 respectively."

These rose 20% and 31% respectively in short order, then retraced those gains.

In our update a month ago we noted that these were are back down to roughly the same levels as when we emphatically recommended them on April 22.  

In bold we stated:  "We again strongly suggest that if you're not short stocks, it's a great time to do so via TZA and VXX which last traded at $46.36 and $23.01 respectively."
 
History repeats.  At today's close TZA is 17% higher while VXX is 32% higher.

Consider booking those very fast and generous gains, unless these are your only effective short positions.

Today we sold two of our TZA positions at $54.00 for gains of 11% and 15%.  




PLEASE READ DISCLAIMER AT BOTTOM OF PAGE



Thursday, August 08, 2019

Inversion


 
It's not different this time.





PLEASE READ DISCLAIMER AT BOTTOM OF PAGE



Wednesday, August 07, 2019

Buying LTHM


In our 2018 review, we wrote of LTHM: "We'll definitely buy back in when the timing and chart looks better."

After yesterday's positive quarterly results, it seems a major down trend is broken:


We also like the company's fundamentals and it's nice to have something other than gold and short positions since those are becoming increasingly popular, to our considerable enrichment.

We're long LTHM again, at $6.20

No stop level for now. 



PLEASE READ DISCLAIMER AT BOTTOM OF PAGE



Monday, August 05, 2019

Selling TZA 4th & 5th Positions, JNUG Stop Raised Again


Today we closed our TVIX position at the open of $20.18 for a gain of 43% in just a few days.

It finished the day far higher at $22.56, and as of this writing after-hours it's at $26.50 which is 88% above our entry.

If you didn't sell TVIX today, we suggest doing so if it remains higher by morning.  It's a highly volatile and levered instrument, and we have so many other short positions to bring us joy as markets spiral lower in the weeks and months to come.
 
Readers of this blog should not at all have been surprised by recent market action.  It was overdue, and stocks were primed to tumble hard as these recent posts show:

Strong Consumer Confidence Should Send Stock Speculators To The Checkout Aisle - "Note: we changed the word "investors" in the title to 'speculators' because at these levels there are arguably no investors in equities ... unless they've sold short"

Gold Positions Update - "On April 22 we posted in bold: 'If you're not short stocks, it's a great time to buy TZA and VXXB'.  These rose 20% and 31% respectively and are now back down to roughly the same levels as on April 22. (VXXB now trades as VXX).  We again strongly suggest that if you're not short stocks, it's a great time to do so via TZA and VXX which last traded at $46.36 and $23.01 respectively." 

VXX is up 38% and TZA is up 21% in the 2 1/2 weeks since.

 

If You Want Rate Cuts...

The Worst Risk-Reward Setup Ever?

Fantastic Chart 

Gold & Russell Triangles - "TZA closed today at $45.88 and we love it at this level."

TZA is 22% higher as of this writing three weeks later.




Congested Epic Top

We Are Here



We'll offer our 4th and 5th TZA positions for sale at $54.00

These were bought at $48.75 and $47.00 (split adjusted) respectively.

TZA closed today at $52.46 and is far higher, at $56.12, in after-hours trading.

If markets rally short-term and our $54.00 offer is not hit in the next day or two, we might cancel this sale or raise the sell limit.  

We do not intend to sell for less, nor even sell at $54.00 if we wouldn't have many short positions remaining.


We've been enjoying fantastic gains thanks to gold lately too.

Gold's Remarkable Chart

Gold Positions Update


We raised the stop on one of our two JNUG positions already twice in the past 24 hours, and now do so again.

Tonight gold is trading higher, as is JNUG.

We're raising our stop on JNUG to $89.90 

It closed the day at $90.33 and last traded at $95.00 after-hours.

If it opens tomorrow below $89.90 we'll simply sell at the open.

If our stop is not triggered tomorrow, we'll likely raise it again.  



PLEASE READ DISCLAIMER AT BOTTOM OF PAGE



JNUG Stop Raised Again


We're raising the stop on JNUG again, now to $86.45 which is just below today's low.

For reference see yesterday's post, "JNUG Stop".





PLEASE READ DISCLAIMER AT BOTTOM OF PAGE



DJIA Chart


Interesting.





PLEASE READ DISCLAIMER AT BOTTOM OF PAGE



Sunday, August 04, 2019

JNUG Stop


In re: this recent update on our gold-related positions, we're finally placing a stop on the JNUG position opened in August of last year at $60.75

We'll sell if it trades below $80.27, which is just below Friday's close.

Gold is shooting higher this evening on news of China devaluing its currency.

We believe that should JNUG trade below its Friday close it'd show remarkable weakness, so we'd be happy to reduce exposure while booking a considerable gain on this position.

Still no stop on the JNUG position opened at $69.25 last June.




PLEASE READ DISCLAIMER AT BOTTOM OF PAGE



Saturday, August 03, 2019

TVIX Update


A few days ago we entered TVIX.

It's already gone as much as 35% above our entry and 50% above its recent low. 

Since it's such a volatile instrument, we'll take some unusual steps with respect to our stop level.

We'll first raise our sell stop from $11.00 to $12.60

If it trades above $19 again, we'll further raise that stop to $17.35

If it reaches as high as $19.80 on Monday or Tuesday, we'll sell the entire position.

Should none of these conditions occur by the end of Tuesday's trading, we'll post another update.




PLEASE READ DISCLAIMER AT BOTTOM OF PAGE



Thursday, August 01, 2019

Strong Consumer Confidence Should Send Stock Speculators to the Checkout Aisle


MarketWatch: This highly accurate stock-market predictor just hit its most bearish level since the internet bubble

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index was reported earlier this week to have jumped to 135.7, from 124.3 in June — a much higher than expected increase.

This certainly seems to be good news, since the U.S. economy is so dependent on consumer spending. By some counts, in fact, consumer spending accounts for 68% of the U.S. GDP.

In fact, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is a contrarian market indicator: high values are bearish for stocks and low values are bullish.

Click the link above to read more.


Note: we changed the word "investors" in the title to "speculators" because at these levels there are arguably no investors in equities ... unless they've sold short.

Human nature is immutable, ergo it's not different this time.




PLEASE READ DISCLAIMER AT BOTTOM OF PAGE