Riding The Gravy Train

Beating the market is fun and profitable. This is how we do it.

Thursday, February 04, 2016

NUGT Up 100% in Two Weeks, Selling Half

On January 20th, we timed the current market low virtually to the minute

One position we purchased was NUGT.  As of this writing, it's up more than 107% so we're selling half. 

The other two purchases made on Jan 20th - OKS and UCO - are both up 29% with UCO having gone as high as +52%. 

We're holding those with stop levels unchanged and raising the stop on the remaining half of NUGT to $23 on an intraday basis.





We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained in herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.


Wednesday, February 03, 2016

Gold Chart and NUGT Stop Updated

In November we turned long-term bullish on gold for the first time since we turned bearish at virtually the exact top back in 2011.

We were virtually a lone bullish voice on gold at the time, other than the poor souls who had been mistakenly bullish all of the long way down.  They will repeat their mistakes of the past while we'll seek to again sell near the top and turn short. 

For now we remain bullish, and probably many others are about to join us now that this giant declining wedge pattern seems to be breaking upward as we'd predicted it would.



We were lucky to time the current market bounce nearly to the minute, and remain long those positions. 

NUGT is up 77%, UCO is up 34% (having risen as high as +52%) and OKS is up 22% in just two weeks.  Not bad! 

If you have oversized positions or are in need of limiting risk after the market drop this year, it's prudent to ease up on these positions. 

We'll remain long, raising our NUGT stop to $22 on an intra-day basis (up from the original $16).  We've no stop on OKS and will leave the stop on UCO at $5.50




We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained in herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.


Monday, February 01, 2016

Closing DEE +303% , Gold Update

In November we closed 2/3 of our double position in DEE for a gain of over 160% as diarized (and over 200% on positions we'd previously held that we disclosed at the time). 

At today's high DEE was up 400% from our suggested entry, up 303% at the close, and we're going to ease out of the rest of our position. 

In that same posting we turned bullish on gold on a longer-term basis for the first time in years.  Gold hit its low two days later. 

Later that month we identified a "declining wedge" pattern in gold which we'll update today.

The two gold charts below show the daily and weekly time frames. 

The daily shows a year-long downward trend channel being challenged. 


 
 
The weekly shows that there's also the potential for an upside break-out of the giant "declining wedge" pattern, which would be exceptionally bullish and is what we expect to occur.
 





We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained in herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.


Thursday, January 21, 2016

Considering The Gold / Silver Ratio

There appears to be a "triple-top" formation in the 15-year gold/silver ratio:


Provided there's a reversal as there has been in the past, that'll mean gold will go up at a slower pace relative to silver (which we believe will be the case), or gold will fall at a faster pace relative to silver. 

We're long NUGT per this blog, however a pure play on metals would be via items such as GLD, DGP, SLV, AGQ, USLV the difference being gold or silver and varying degrees of leverage.  We do also hold levered gold and silver longs, not diarized in this blog.


Related recent posts:

Equities Finally Somewhat Oversold, Long NUGT, OKS, UCO

Gold And Silver Charts

Another Look At Gold

Reducing DEE +166% , Market Update, Gold Update, Entering NUGT




We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained in herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.


Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Equities Finally Somewhat Oversold, Long NUGT, OKS, UCO

Late in 2015 we reiterated our bearish outlook for equities several times:

November 30 - "Junk Bonds A Bad Omen"

December 14 - "Reasons To Remain Bearish"

December 16 - "Margin Debt At An Extreme"

December 19 - "All Wrong, And Gold. UCO Update"


Over the month since then, the DJIA is down roughly 2300 points or 13%.  This has been the worst start to a calendar year in all of stock market history.

On a short-term basis, and only on a short-term basis, equities are now oversold.  On a long-term basis stocks are nowhere near oversold.  The DJIA also may be at some forms of technical support as shown on the charts below.



With that stated, we're prepared to speculate. 

Of NUGT, in the December 19 post linked above, we wrote; "It may take awhile to get the entry right, however once we do it'll be very memorably profitable." 

We entered the position a few days later at $25 with a stop that was hit at $22 a few days ago for a loss of 12%.  It's now down to $18 as of this writing and we're going long again with a stop on an intra-day basis at $16

UCO we purchased two days later at $12.20, losing almost 6% when our stop was hit at $11.50  It's much lower now at $6.50 and we're going long again with an intra-day stop at $5.50

OKS currently yields 13.9% (trading at $22.80 with a $0.79/qtr dividend) and we're going long as it too may be at or near some technical support as seen below. 

Certainly it's bullish that while many of its peers, including our holdings of WPZ and ETP, are far below where they were in mid-December and at risk of cutting their dividends, OKS is still above its mid-December lows in large part because it reaffirmed its dividend for 2016

While there are certainly no guarantees and all market exposure is speculation, that press release is a welcome assurance in this dire market environment - especially within the oil and gas sector.  No stop on OKS, as we're looking to hold for long-term dividends and hopefully capital appreciation.






We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained in herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.


Wednesday, December 23, 2015

UCO Buy-Stop Updated

We're updating our UCO buy-stop to $12.20

If filled, we'll place a stop on a closing basis below $11.50

This article, Wall Street’s experts botched stock picks in 2015 – again, makes a good follow-up to our recent post "All Wrong...".

The last line is particularly worth remembering.  "Caveat investor, as always. There is no substitute for thinking for yourself."





We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.


To be notified when this blog is updated : Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a blog entry only contains general commentary.

Monday, December 21, 2015

Long NUGT

As promised last posting, we're going long NUGT again at today's open. 

Initial stop will be on an intra-day basis below $22. 






We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.


To be notified when this blog is updated : Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a blog entry only contains general commentary.

Saturday, December 19, 2015

All Wrong, And Gold. UCO Update

Before the Wednesday Federal Reserve interest rate announcement we wrote:

"Typical action will be a rally lasting a short while, usually a day or two..."

What went up came easily back down, and despite a rally of over 600 points from the Monday low to the Wednesday close the DJIA finished the week at its lowest closing level of the past two months.  Factor that markets are typically bullish at this time of year, and this does not bode well for the bulls.

Speaking of bulls, in a recent Barron's survey all "experts" polled were bullish for 2016, with some offering wildly bullish predictions.  They're more BS'ers than bullish, we suggest, and our prediction is that they'll all be proven quite wrong, as is almost always the case when "experts" unanimously agree on market matters. 

One can't help but think of the "magazine cover indicator".



It's certainly possible that markets will rocket higher next year, but if that happens it's most likely to be from a much lower level.  In any case, there are no compelling fundamental reasons to be bullish at present, and no compelling technical reasons so long as the DJIA remains below 18000.

What is compelling is the developing set-up in gold and silver.  We'll be announcing a related long position soon.  It may take awhile to get the entry right, however once we do it'll be very memorably profitable. 

Recent gold-related posts:

Gold And Silver Charts - Friday, December 11, 2015

Another Look At Gold - Sunday, November 29, 2015


We're updating our UCO buy-stop to $13.00 







We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.


To be notified when this blog is updated : Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a blog entry only contains general commentary.

Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Margin Debt At An Extreme

Today's minor U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike is of no real consequence. 

Contrary to popular belief, the Fed doesn't even actually set rates it merely follows rising or falling rates as set by the bond and treasury markets. 

Typical action will be a rally lasting a short while, usually a day or two although with light trading in this traditionally bullish season it could last longer, then a major reversal. 

As of today, despite the DJIA being up a massive 601 points since the low hit just two days ago on Monday morning, the DJIA is not even in the black for the year so far.  That's not bullish.

Also not bullish, in fact arguably quite bearish, is the level of margin debt. 


The above chart is months old, from early 2015, and since then margin debt has turned lower, as have stocks.  The DJIA's high (18351) was in May, and that high was only slightly higher than the high hit in early March (18288). 

It doesn't matter whether margin debt turns lower before or after equities, it only matters that margin debt remains in the red zone and now interest rates are rising, however slightly, with the promise of more rate hikes to come, economic indicators globally are in decay, and most importantly the bond market is on very shaky ground which also will not be helped by rising rates.

 






We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.


To be notified when this blog is updated : Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a blog entry only contains general commentary.

Monday, December 14, 2015

Reasons To Remain Bearish

Reasons to remain bearish, per these MarketWatch articles:

Stocks are more overvalued now than at 2000 and 2007 peaks



High-yield debt meltdown is ‘so similar to 2007,’ Gundlach says

Jeremy Grantham says America’s economy stinks, and soon its stock market will too

5 things that show the junk-bond market is in big trouble

Why the junk bond sell-off is getting very scary






We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.


To be notified when this blog is updated : Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a blog entry only contains general commentary.