Originally purchased per this blog in May of 2007, we now sell
ER, Eastmain Resources, which trades in Canada.
Eastmain has a good prospect so the stock may well go higher, but we feel in the shorter term both the stock and perhaps gold itself are due for a rest and consolidation if not retraction, so we wish to book this significant long gain in a bear market. We may re-enter the stock at lower levels.
A recap - positive news in poor markets :
So far in 2008 we've closed 4 positions for an average 29% gain on an average holding period of 11.5 months.
Over the past 9 months, we've closed 17 positions for an average 34% gain.
Over the past year the average gain on closed positions has been 43% and that's also approximately the average realized on sold positions since inception of the blog in August of 2006. Most stocks were significantly lower within a short period of time after we sold.
The average holding time of sold shares since the inception of the blog has been less than six months, making for an annualized gain approaching 100% in markets that have been a challenge for most investors. Almost exclusively this has been with simple long holdings of a diversity of common stocks listed in North America.
For US Dollar holders, the real gains approch closer to 130% annualized since most of our plays have been in Canadian dollars so US participants enjoy the currency moves as well.
The above results do not factor our continued bullishness on gold, silver, and platinum all along the way and consistent predictions of short and longer term price moves.
A few examples.
Note this typical post from October 2006, at which time stock markets in North America had been stagnant or dropping for nearly a year : "As of this writing, silver is at $11.57 USD per oz. We remain very bullish gold and believe this is an excellent entry point for silver."
Silver is now over $20/oz.And note this post also from October 2006, also typical of our stance all along : "In 2007 we fear dire consequences as the housing and credit economy collapses and markets turn sour. [...] We plan to be strapped-in for an economic "hard landing"."
From August 2006 : "Extremely bullish on uranium, which hit a new high of spot $47.50 USD today. Bearish on housing prices, [...] the US market is in for a major shock. Bearish on the US dollar."
We bought many uranium stocks per this blog in 2006. Uranium was $135, +184% less than a year later. Housing prices in the US have declined steadily and significantly since that post, as has the US dollar.
On March 01 of 2007 we wrote : "Selling SAN +251%, EMC +151%, UEX +71%, URE +57%, SGC -12% and shorting ERTS. Some selling to preserve profits. We see major downside in the charts of these stocks before their long-term trends and support levels are reached, at which time we may re-enter. Sales such as these provide us with the capital to do so if the time comes."
These were not unusual gains to be booking in uranium stocks at the time, and we had held these for only roughly 6 months on average. Few of these went much higher after we sold, and not 6 months later these were respective to our sell price -76%, even, -35%, -52%, and -55%.
The only stock we did re-enter was Santoy Resources, on which we scored an additional 41% gain in only a week, and we re-entered the stock a third time recently on which we are currently down 14%.
We believe Santoy Resources remains a good speculation at this level, currently $0.38 Our ERTS short has not yet been sold and it shows a modest but increasing profit.
In March of of 2007 we also wrote : "Uranium is at $90, poised to rocket even higher and soon over $100 we believe."
By June uranium was at $135 and we were out of nearly all of our extensive uranium holdings. Uranium has dropped 45% from its highs last June.
Factor also our consistent bearishness on the US Dollar and US housing, including our initial short on
Countrywide Financial at $37.25
In contrast, the TSE is up approximately 8.5% over the past year. The DJIA is almost exactly where it was a year ago. The NASDAQ is down, and the S&P 500 is down. Factor inflation, and the picture is much worse - arguably all down if measured in real terms. This will get much worse before it gets any better, in our estimation.
The average gain on our positions initiated over the past 6 months is 12.5% over 17 entries (only one of which has been sold so far, when we pocketed a 41% one-week gain on Santoy), the average holding time thus far a mere 2 months.
Average gain on all existing open positions is currently -6%.
We strive for exceptional gains and consistency with infrequent and simple trading regardless of market conditions, and thus far permit us to say we're solidly on-target. Not bad for the price, we suggest.
Our outlook remains the same as it has all along, and the markets globally support and validate that view. For further details, please see the post entitled "long EMX, WEGI and short XLY, GM, AXL, SYX, AXP" from January 30 of this year.
We remain of the belief that the longs and shorts we've entered in recent months are still at compelling entry levels for longer-term gains and stability in an extremely erratic market environment.
We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the stocks we do, or for mentioning them in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact, otherwise we generally buy and sell as diarized here. This blog itself is merely a diarizing of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult your broker or investment advisor before making any investing decisions.
To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly.
