NUGT Stop Raised Again, DJIA Quarterly Momentum Chart

 

NUGT shot higher again today, opening at nearly $106 thus clearing the possible resistance at $104 we noted yesterday, and closed up 561% from our mid-January entry.

 

We've set a new stop at $99 for our remaining shares. 

 

Here's a chart worth considering.  It is a quarterly chart showing the RSI and MACD of the DJIA.  It doesn't matter if you know exactly what RSI and MACD represent, however you can click the links if interested in reading about those terms.

 

 

What anyone can plainly see (indicated by the red circles) is that over the past 20 years when the RSI has broken down from overbought (above 70) on a quarterly basis, it was a very dire signal for the stock market.  

 

The most recent such breakdown was earlier this year and, as can be seen on the bottom portion of the chart, the blue line of the MACD has peaked and looks to be on its way to plunging below the red line and taking stocks with it.

Also at bottom of the chart, indicated by the yellow line, we can see that each time the momentum histogram (green vertical bars) rose to a similar level before the plunge.

 

While this is by no means definitive, it is one of many disconcerting indicators that cause us to believe it's prudent to remain hedged and to tighten stops on long positions, or even to speculate on the short side, and we've done exactly that.  

 

Nothing works every time when it comes to markets, however prudence always pays in the long run.

 

 

 

 

 



We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained in herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.

Updated Stops on NUGT, UCO, OKS, LBS. JCP, VGR, FAZ, LNKD Stopped Out. Opened TZA.

 

We're updating sell stops again and diarizing a pair of stops that were recently triggered.  We've also added a new market short position.

 

 

NUGT is up 455% since our mid-January entry and we're raising the stop on our remaining shares once again, from $72 to $90 on an intra-day basis.  We note that if it hits $104 there could be resistance, not to mention the move is arguably overdone at this point.  NUGT closed today at $100.

 

 

UCO (ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil) is up 78% since our mid-January entry.  Stop raised from $8.80 to $9.90 on an intra-day basis.  If this is stopped out we'll have plenty more oil exposure left over, mostly bought at or near the lows late 2015 and early 2016.

 

 

OKS (Oneok Partners LP) is among that oil exposure and is up 58% including dividends since our mid-January entry.  Stop raised from $31.00 to $32.50 on an intra-day basis.  We'd like to keep the 13.9% dividend coming in for as long as possible, but do not wish to be holding too many oil-related positions and losing large capital "paper" gains in case of a protracted stock market drop which is long overdue. 

 

 

LBS (Brompton Life & Banc Split Corp.) has been a holding of ours for nearly 4 years now, and it has paid a 24% annual dividend (based on our entry price circa $5 and a "Return Of Capital" of $1.20/annum, paid as $0.10 monthly).  At its highs it was up 132% from our entry (trading above $11 last year) and is currently up 60% plus has paid nearly 100% back via its generous monthly return of capital.

We'll raise the recent stop level set at $6.80 to $7.80  an on intra-day basis, the idea being that if markets suffer a protracted drop we'll sell out at a prudent stop level then probably buy back in at a lower price. 

 

VGR we'd also owned for years, as first diarized in August 2013.  Since that posting almost three years ago, it's up roughly 26% and has paid 9.5% per annum cash dividends as well as an additional 5% per annum shares dividend.

We did reduce some of our VGR position almost a year later, as detailed in this post - selling CWA +49%, reducing VGR +25%

We recently set a stop on VGR at $20.90 on an intra-day basis.  As with LBS the idea is that if markets suffer a protracted drop we'll perhaps buy back in later at a lower price. The stop was triggered last Friday for a gain of 23% on the stock plus about 42% worth of dividends in cash and shares. 

 

 

JCP (JC Penney) rose as much as 24% higher after our late-January entry.  The stop was recently raised to $9.20 on an intra-day basis, which was triggered earlier this week for a gain of 10% 

 

 

In early April we opened a long position in FAZ (Direxion Financial Bear 3x), which is a levered short on financials.  We set an initial stop at $41 on an intra-day basis which was triggered just a week later for a loss of 6.4%

 

 

We still have VXX (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures) as a market hedge and short. 

 

 

During today's session we added TZA (Direxion Small Cap Bear 3X) and will hold it above $37.50 on an intra-day basis.   

 

 

We also shorted LinkedIn Corp. (LNKD) in early April.  That didn't work out and last week our $119.50 intra-day stop was triggered for a loss of 4.7%

 

In tonight's after-market trading LNKD is up roughly $10 on improved earnings guidance.  It may burst higher on this sentiment but should prove a profitable short eventually.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained in herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.

Updated Stops - JCP, UCO, OKS, NUGT

 

We're updating some stops once again on several of our open positions. 

JCP went as much as 24% higher since our late-January entry.  Stop raised from $8.80 to $9.20 on an intra-day basis.

UCO is up 57% since our mid-January entry.  Stop raised from $8.00 to $8.80 on an intra-day basis.  If this is stopped out we'll have plenty more oil exposure left over, mostly bought at or near the lows late last year and earlier this year.

OKS is among that oil exposure and is up 54% including dividend since our mid-January entry.  Stop raised from $26.00 to $31.00 on an intra-day basis.  We'd like to keep the 13.9% dividend coming in for as long as possible, do not wish to be holding too many longs and losing large capital "paper" gains in case of a protracted market drop which is long overdue. 

NUGT is up 394% since our mid-January entry and we're raising the stop on our remaining shares from $62 to $72 on an intra-day basis.


 

 

 

 

 



We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained in herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.

Updated Stops - JCP, UCO, OKS, NUGT, LBS, VGR

 

We're updating stops on several of our open positions.

JCP went as much as 24% higher since our late-January entry, but is now barely up.  Stop raised from $7.50 to $8.80 on an intra-day basis.

UCO is up 52% including dividend since our mid-January entry.  Stop raised from $7.00 to $8.00 on an intra-day basis. 

OKS is up 41% including dividend since our mid-January entry.  Stop raised from $21.90 to $26.00 on an intra-day basis.

NUGT is up 368% since our mid-January entry and we're raising to stop on our remaining shares from $50 to $62 on an intra-day basis.

LBS we've held for nearly 4 years now and has paid a 24% annual dividend (based on our entry price circa $5 and a "Return Of Capital" of $1.20/annum, paid as $0.10 monthly).  At its highs it was up 132% from our entry (it traded above $11 last year) and is currently up 52% plus has paid nearly 100% back via its generous monthly return of capital.

We'll set an initial stop on LBS of $6.80 an on intra-day basis, the idea being that if markets suffer a protracted drop we'll sell out at a prudent stop level then later buy back in at a lower price. 

We've owned VGR for years, as first diarized here in August 2013.  Since that posting almost three years ago, it's up roughly 26% and has paid 9.5% per annum cash dividends as well as an additional 5% per annum shares dividend.

We  did reduce some of our VGR position almost a year later, as detailed in this post - selling CWA +49%, reducing VGR +25%

We're setting an initial stop on VGR at $20.90 on an intra-day basis, and as with LBS the idea is that if markets suffer a protracted drop we'll sell out at a prudent stop level then perhaps buy back in later at a lower price. 




 

 

 

 

 



We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained in herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.

DJIA Chart Updated

 

Here's an updated chart of the DJIA showing trend resistance in black and broken upward wedge patterns in blue.

 

 

 

 

 

 



We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained in herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.

Buying FAZ, Shorting LNKD

 

Equities appear to have begun at the very least a significant retracement of the rally since mid-February and quite likely a protracted drop to new lows for the year. 

Recently we bought VXX to effectively enter a levered short on general equities.  We still do not have a stop level for this position. 

VXX:

Now we add a long position in FAZ, which is a levered short on financials.  Initial stop at $41 on an intra-day basis. 

FAZ:

We're also shorting LinkedIn Corp. (LNKD). 

To say we don't believe its business model is a good one going forward, and that its prospects don't support its market valuation, is an understatement.

When's the last time you heard this company mentioned?  Do you know anyone who uses it, or claims to derive any benefit by doing so?  We're not here to make a logical or fundamental case however, as we trade based on technicals.

At its low of early February it had dropped 64% from its all-time high a year before.  It has since bounced and looks like a good short sale to us, as general equities and this stock in particular are over-valued in our estimation so we expect LNKD to mark all-time lows at some point this year and to continue lower from there.  If so, this may turn out to be a long-term holding but we'll let the market and our stop level decide that.

 

LNKD closed today at $113.69   We'll place an initial stop at $119.50 on an intra-day basis in an attempt to limit our initial risk to roughly 5%.

Those with greater risk tolerance may wish to place their stop above $125 per the black line in the chart below.

 

LNKD:

 

 

 

 

 

 



We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained in herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.