Riding The Gravy Train: February 2009

Riding The Gravy Train

Beating the market is fun and profitable. This is how we do it.

Friday, February 27, 2009

selling SU at break-even

Per our December 15th 2008 update we went long SU at $20.25

In that same update we were fortunate to close a short in GCI which resulted in a profit of 24% after holding just 3 days, and we purchased MGA which we sold for a net gain of 44% just two weeks later. This good fortune did not extend to our Suncor position however

SU has since gone higher and lower while we sat and did nothing. Now with the markets so uncertain and at such a critical and potentially dangerous junction we do not wish to hold this long position further, thinking we may be able to repurchase it much lower in the future.

Should it instead be the case that energy stocks rally, we have longs such as BTU that should profit for us.

SU last closed at $20.39 so we sell now at essentially a break-even level after holding nearly 2.5 months.


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We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the stocks we do, or mentioning them in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact, otherwise we generally buy and sell as diarized here. This blog itself is merely a diarizing of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we, nor have we ever sent anything other than update notices for this blog to our mailing list. We only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized, not if an update only contains general market commentary.

Monday, February 23, 2009

NOV called for +31% in 3 months

Another options expiry week has passed without a market rally. Our NOV position has been called away for a 31% profit on our adjusted cost base per selling two sets of covered calls. It's wonderful to book a significant profit on a long position despite the markets going steadlily lower. Further details in the post of November 12.


Last update we were quite right in observing that the markets seemed to wish to go down. We were quite wrong holding our gold short despite GLD closing over our initial line drawn at $900. We still feel fine with the short, and at this point might as well wait and see if it hits new highs before we'd likely cover.

We believe the government is crooked or clueless, and lying either way - there is no plan of benefit to taxpayers who lived within their means and paid their debts, and there is no chance that government wasting so much bailout/stimulus money will benefit the overall economy. That is a scam of far greater magnitude and scope than even Bernie Madoff could dream of.

We believe the banks are in much worse shape than is claimed, and that this will be painfully evident to everyone soon. We believe any rally could be very short-lived and met with equally quick selling.

We are not comfortable holding any unhedged long positions overnight, and especially not comfortable having any signficant long speculative holdings merely hoping for a protracted market rally. We sleep well with effective shorts in place, believing the markets will be much lower within months if not imminently.



We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the stocks we do, or mentioning them in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact, otherwise we generally buy and sell as diarized here. This blog itself is merely a diarizing of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we, nor have we ever sent anything other than update notices for this blog to our mailing list. We only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized, not if an update only contains general market commentary.