DJIA Chart Updated

 

Here's how the DJIA looks to us currently, with the black lines representing trends of resistance:

 

Note too that for the past year the range between 17500 - 18000 has limited how high stocks could go. 

It could be different this time, but it probably won't be. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained in herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.

Buying VXX

 

Yesterday's U.S. Federal Reserve announcement brought the volatility we’d expected, especially in gold and oil which was much to our advantage.

While equities generally went a bit higher Wednesday it’s a big red flag that Goldman Sachs (GS), which is a favored market proxy of ours, dropped almost half a percent and remains far below its 200-day moving average and also below its 200-week moving average.  That's bearish.

Also bearish is that bullish sentiment is now at the same level as it was at the November high.  At that time the market had staged a 25-day rally.  The current rally has lasted 23 days, marking another parallel.  After the November high the DJIA dropped more than 2500 points (roughly 14%) over the course of 10 weeks that followed. 

Fed announcement days have often marked the end of a rally for stocks and it could certainly happen again with this week's Fed announcement, thus we're going long VXX without a stop level in mind for the time being.

Here's how we see the DJIA, showing probable resistance in black.  It looks to be a long way down once the index breaks below the red line.

 

 

 

 

 



We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained in herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.

Coffee Breaks Above Year-long Downward Trend

 

We remain bullish coffee, and long JO.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained in herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.

Coffee and DJIA Update, Stops Updated on NUGT and UCO

Coffee closed at its highest level of 2016, as has our JO position.   

 

 

On the chart above, in black we've shown possible overhead resistance.  We remain bullish coffee in the long term. 

The DJIA closed the week at its highest level of the year, though still down so far in 2016.  

Below is an updated look at the DJIA chart we've posted the past two weekends.  

The black lines are overhead resistance, the orange line is possible trend resistance, and the blue lines outline a large "rising wedge" pattern that's likely soon to break down.  Such a confluence of lines is not prudently ignored.

 

 

Next is a chart showing an extreme in at least one key sentiment reading, the CBOE (Chicago Board Of Exchange) put/call ratio.  The circles show points at which equities began material drops.  

 

The circles correspond to late last June, early August, early November, early February, and early March.  You can see for yourself on the DJIA chart above what happened after those dates, and we're of the mind that the same thing will happen again.
 

 

NUGT is up 237% from our entry on January 20th and has gone as high as +296% 

We last revised our NUGT stop on March 03 and now do so again, raising it to $50.00 on an intra-day basis.

 

UCO was also entered on January 20th and is up 53% from our entry.  We also last revised its stop on March 03, and now raise that stop another dollar to $7.50 on an intra-day basis.

Next week the U.S. Federal Reserve has a two-day meeting starting Tuesday, with the related announcement coming at 2PM EST on Wednesday.  The Bank Of Japan makes its next pronouncement on Tuesday, March 15.

 

 

 

 

 



We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained in herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.

Gold/Silver Ratio vs. Equities

 

Here's a different look at the gold/silver ratio, via a chart of the S&P500 vs. the silver/gold ratio (effectively an inverted gold/silver ratio to show the current contrast vs. equities):

 

History suggests that 1. the silver/gold ratio should rise (same as gold/silver ratio falling) and 2. it should get back in line with equities.  

 

There's several ways that could happen.  The most likely two are that equities drop while the silver/gold ratio drops by a lesser degree or that equities drop while the silver/gold ratio rises.  Far less likely is that both rise with the silver/gold ratio rising at a relatively faster pace.  Other scenarios exist, but aren't worth discussing here. 

 

Whichever of the various possible scenarios will eventually play out, we feel confident it'll involve equities dropping.

 

Next week the U.S. Federal Reserve has a two-day meeting starting Tuesday, with the related announcement coming at 2PM EST on Wednesday.  The Bank Of Japan makes its next pronouncement on Tuesday, March 15. 

 

Both events could cause volatility in equities and metals.  Today the European Central Bank made its pronouncement which resulted in a very wild ride to nowhere in the DJIA (a 309-point swing from high to low and a close down just 5 points on the day), as well as a modest bump higher in gold and silver. 

 

 

 

 

 

 



We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained in herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.

DJIA Chart, UCO Stop Updated

Late in 2015 we were strident in our assertion that equities would soon plunge. 

 

For example, on December 19th we wrote:

 

"It's certainly possible that markets will rocket higher next year, but if that happens it's most likely to be from a much lower level.  In any case, there are no compelling fundamental reasons to be bullish at present, and no compelling technical reasons so long as the DJIA remains below 18000.

What is compelling is the developing set-up in gold and silver.  We'll be announcing a related long position soon.  It may take awhile to get the entry right, however once we do it'll be very memorably profitable."

 

Here's a look at gold since then, with the back circle showing when we made that call:

 

 

 

As it turned out gold made a 5-year low the day before we posted the quote above, and has since gone up 22% in just over two months.

 

 

Our bearish outlook on equities was also validated, given the start of 2016 turned out to be the worst start of a year in stock market history.

 

On January 20, we presented these two charts of the DJIA:

 

 

 

The title of the post that day was "Equities Finally Somewhat Oversold, Long NUGT, OKS, UCO", and that day proved to be the low for equities so far this year.  Within two weeks the DJIA was over 1000 points higher.  

 

Stocks then plunged again but did not make a new low, and on February 11 our DJIA chart looked like this:

 

 

 

That chart suggested strong support, and since that day the DJIA is up over 1500 points in three weeks!

 

Today the DJIA looks like this to us, with the black lines showing probable resistance:

 

 

 

Since the January 20 buys, NUGT is up 237% (up 297% at Friday's high) while OKS is up 35% and UCO is up 38% (up 52% at the January 29 high). 

 

We've subsequently revised our stop levels on these holdings, and now will raise the UCO stop further to $7.00 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained in herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.

NUGT, OKS, UCO and JCP Stops Updated

The remainder of our NUGT position is up about 250% since our mid-January entry and we're raising our stop once again, now to $45 on an intra-day basis.

 

OKS (ONEOK Partners) is up about 40% since our mid-January entry so although we're into it for long-term dividends and hopefully greater capital appreciation, we'll place an intra-day stop at $21.90 which is just below our entry to prevent this position from becoming a loser.

 

UCO (Proshares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil) was also entered that same day and is now up about 30%  We're placing an intra-day stop at our entry price of $6.50

 

JCP (J.C Penney) is up 35% since our entry last week (up 13% since the next day's open) and we're raising our stop to $7.50 on an intra-day basis.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained in herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.