Musk Admits It

Jalopnik: Elon Musk Admits Everyone Was Right About Tesla

CNBC: Elon Musk should just admit it when his companies are in trouble

Do you believe Tesla was near failure then weeks later managed the "miracle quarter" as reported, without major accounting ... we don't want to write FRAUD so  ... irregularities?

If you do believe that, you've a considerable and dangerous lack of market experience or common sense, and there's arguably not much sense in asking yourself what other major things he's lying about or covering up.

As for us, we remain short Tesla.



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Crypto-slaughter, GBTC, GTT

Crypto-clowns are getting bitconned again, as they deserve for ignoring all common-sense, fundamentals, market history and human nature.

Posted mid-December 2017:  "The end of 2017 [may] ironically mark the end of an epic bull run fuelled on nothing more than debt and misplaced hope.  And who knows what'll happen during or after the inevitable crypto-crash.  How many will have been bitconned [sic] out of their life's savings?"


2018 Year-to-Date Crypto Return:

Qtum: -96%
ICON: -95%
Cardano: -94%
Lisk: -93%
IOTA: -92%
NEM: -92%
Bitcoin Gold: -91%
Dash: -90%
OmiseGO: -90%
Bitcoin Cash: -89%
NEO: -88%
Litecoin: -86%
zCash: -84%
Ethereum: -83%
Ethereum Classic: -81%
Monero: -81%
XRP: -79%
TRON: -76%
Bitcoin: -67%

June 23 2018: How Low? Bitcoin, Gold and Equities Bubbles in Sync

We did recently take a long shot via GBTC as the chart seemed compelling, which resulted in a quick loss as thankfully we had a stop-loss order in place.

Countless others were not so disciplined, and possibly crypto-skepticism is finally increasing amongst the less sheep-like within the crypto-flock.

Looking at the chart and numbers above might make one wonder if there's any good news?

Yes!  

There'll soon enough be weeks, if not single days, like this in equities too, with similar year-to-date returns for many.

History repeats, and human nature never changes.

GTT was also stopped out recently, after being up as much as 128% within two weeks of our entry.  Or was it?

Our entry was below $1.00 and our revised suggested stop was at $1.45 however for some GTT may have opened below their stop limit after poor assay results last week resulted in it gapping down to $1.06 after a previous close of $1.61

If still holding it, we suggest a revised stop level at $0.96 which is just under the low of last week.



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Tesla Forcing Owners To Keep Windows Open in Winter

With the arrival of cold weather, dozens if not hundreds of Tesla owners are already complaining online that their Model 3 cars are not fit for winter.

Most reports center around door handles frozen shut, windows not opening or closing, chargers that won't attach or detach, greatly reduced mileage, as well as a litany of mechincal and structural issues.  Some are spending up to an hour trying to thaw their car with a hair dryer in order to be able to drive to work.

That's a shame, but not underserved for being first adopters of an untested vehicle from a brand reknown for poor quality that's run by a a CEO who's becoming more famous by the day for his lies.  

In typical fashion Tesla released a slapdash software update, and it seems the fix is worse than the problem.

Electrek: Tesla releases new Model 3 software update to address cold weather issue

"Looks like Tesla is not allowing the window to go completely up anymore in order to enable people to safely open doors in cold weather. The disadvantage is that it doesn’t seal the interior ..."

In winter.  In the rain, sleet and cold.

What if you need to wash the winter grime and road salt off your overpriced lemon?  No matter, since these cars are already infamous for leaking water inside when washed.

While the company has provided no end of entetainment in 2018, it seems Tesla news will be even more amusing in the year to come. 

Tesla is at a price level first hit in May 2017 despite its miraculous accounting, CEO-guaranteed positive cash flow & profitability forever going forward, and literally incredible production figures, lagging the general market miserably on the upside but will soon be leading on the downside.

We are short Tesla.

 



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Junk-To-Treasuries Spread Widest in Over Two Years

In early October the spread between junk bonds and treasuries was the smallest in over 11 years; since the exact day of the 2007 market top, after which stocks plunged massively the following 20 months.

The spread is now the largest it's been in over 2 years, a remarkable reversal in just 6 weeks.

That's very bullish for our 6x Junk Bond Short position, and very bearish for stocks and other hyperinflated assets. 



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Gold & Silver ... Try, Try Again

Our worst trading in years, maybe in the long history of this blog, has arguably been this year in gold and silver-related positions.

Should've used stops.

We've made killings repeatedly in that sector, including turning bearish at the 2011 top and becoming bullish again at the low in late-2015, and we've every confidence that our process remains reliable.

However when inputs move to multi-year, then multi-decade extremes, we're obviously not going to hit the bull's-eye with respect to timing.

For context:

May 22: Buying USLV

June 26: Buying JNUG

August 02: Adding JUNG and USLV

August 13: Adding JNUG, Buying NUGT

August 16: Buying JNUG and NUGT Yet Again


Here's a long-term gold chart:

What now?  We're buying more of course, hoping persistence pays.

Simply we should wish to be quite long when GLD, the gold etf,  trades above $118 and somewhat bearish below $113. 

While chart-wise we remain in limbo, the U.S. dollar seems poised to fall and bearish sentiment on precious metals remains near a record extreme.  At the same time a bullish non-confirmation exists as silver made a new low recently while gold did not.

We'll add a 3rd position in USLV if it trades to $62.15 or above.  



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Lucky Tesla Customers

“I lost all faith in Tesla. I don’t think I’ll ever buy a Tesla.” 

New York Times: What Tesla’s ‘Delivery Logistics Hell’ Is Like for Model 3 Buyers

Since so many people make the mistake of taking this company seriously, and most will not be so lucky as to escape without a lemon or a catastrophic loss, we are short Tesla.



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Varney vs. Musk

This excellent exchange gives us a clear look into how Tesla is run.



Kudos to Varney!

We are short Tesla.

 



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PLU (Plateau Energy Metals), CRE Stop Raised, SIR Stop Triggered

Plateau Energy Metals Inc. (PLU in Canada, PLUUF in the States) is at the key $1.00 level:

At $1.10 the 4-month down trend would be broken.

A prudent stop is below the green up trend, below $0.82

We hold shares at an average of $1.04 and suggest potential buyers may wish to wait until the down trend is broken.


We're raising our stop on CRE (Critical Elements Corp.) to $0.88 from the original $0.79 set when we recently featured it.

CRE is also flirting with the key $1.00 level and has crossed it the past couple days, but so far each time it's been sold hard until back below $1.00 

It's a bit of a concern when a stock can't cross and then establish bidding above $1.00 so we've raised our stop just in case this is as good as it gets for CRE.


SIR (Serengeti Resources) rose as much as 300% from our purchase just a few weeks ago, and unfortauntely today is tanking despite what is considered to be positive assay results released.  No news is always the best news when a stock is gaining ground without press releases.

On the bright side, we recently raised our stop so today closed out for a gain of 87%

We may reconsider SIR after the dust settles.



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SJB - Adding a 6th Junk Bond Short Position

In early October we added a 5th SJB position and stated that "we are open to adding at least a 6th position once JNK, the junk bonds ETF, trades below $35 or below its up trend."

JNK has closed below $35 and we'll now gladly open a 6th position in its inverse, SJB, since we are that confident junk bonds will tank spectacularly.

We don't suggest SJB will rise spectacularly however, since it is not a levered inverse instrument.  Instead the attraction to us is that this seems as close to a "sure thing" as it ever gets, ergo a great place to put funds as the bear market in general equities unfolds.

SJB last traded at $23.03

Repeating from that post in early October:

"We've been accumulating SJB for two years and believe it shouldn't be much longer before patience is rewarded.
 
Holding such an outsized position is admittedly not totally prudent, however extreme markets arguably call for extreme positions and we will certainly stop out should junk bonds trade back above the well-established down trend shown in red."

Here's an update of that JNK chart:

Here's SJB:



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Fine or Five?

Bulls say everything's fine.

We say it's five, because it's not different this time.

It's never different because human nature is immutable and is fundamentally what drives markets, not market fundamentals.

History repeats.

Here it is in chart form:

The red arrow shows where we are now.

We marked the top as January 2018 in greedy green and the subsequent high as October 2018 in Hallowe'en orange because the following should absolutely terrify anyone running on debt and long equities.

As always on this blog, click any graphic to see it in large form:

The chart above covers 4 decades.  It's a proprietary study of movement in major stock markets over time.

1.  41% drop.  A primary plunge.

2.  22% drop.  Secondary slide.  A lower high and low in this indicator, relative to the previous plunge.

3.  38% drop.  Major market meltdown after a higher high, down to a lower low vs. previous cycle in this indicator.

4.  54% drop.  Minor market massacre.  Lower high and low in this indicator relative to previous meltdown.  Same relationship as 2 had to 1.

5.  It's not different this time.  Same relationship apparently developing to 4 as 3 had to 2; higher high, then ...?


"Only" a 22% drop targets DJIA ~22100. 

An average of the 4 drops is ~39% which projects DJIA ~16500.

A much lower level shouldn't surprise.

In any case it's a very long way down, and we'll continue to enjoy the ride.



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Purepoint Uranium (PTU, PUMGF)

Purepoint Uranium (PTU in Canada, PUMGF in the U.S.) broke through a 7-year down trend earlier in 2018 and seems poised to shoot far higher as the uranium sector overall attracts renewed attention.

Since Purepoint broke the down trend shown in the chart above, its high has been $0.08 and it'd be especially compelling if clearing that level.

Should it trade to a new low at $0.05 or below however, that'd be a bad sign and a good level to stop out.

We hold shares at an average cost of $0.07

Click here for some of our other uranium holdings.



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SIR Stop Raised

We're raising our stop on Serengeti to $0.29 which is almost 100% above our entry less than a month ago.

 



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Bard Ventures (CBS) Stop Hit, Kintavar Exploration (KTR) Revisited

Our stop on CBS (Bard Ventures) has been hit for a gain of 550% (420% since featured).

Here's its chart for those who may wish to hold on awhile, keeping the imminent lockup expiry and established upside resistance in mind.

We may revisit this stock awhile after lockup expiry if the chart looks right.

As for revisiting past glories, we entered Kintavar Exploration Inc. (KTR in Canada) the day before Bard late last year and a month later already enjoyed huge gains on the stock.

Within a few more weeks we were stopped out for an average gain of over 200%.

Since then the stock has dropped over 80% and the chart suggests it's a good time to speculate on it again.  If so, we wouldn't be holding if it falls below $0.10  

Perhaps also relevant is that Kintavar had a lockup expiry at the end of April (link opens a .pdf) and has another that expired at end of October (link opens a .pdf).



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Market Short Positions Update

Updating our short positions & repurchase attempts from October 29th.

We now hold 3 positions in VXX, 3 in TZA and 1 in QID.

We had one position in TNA, sold earlier this morning for a gain of 19% in 9 days.  

Posted October 29: "We expect markets to bounce for 1-3 weeks before the next major leg down."

Major indexes posted a low that day, and the bounce is midway through the 1-3 weeks and likely near or already at its apex with respect to points.

The DJIA has rallied 2055 points since its October 29 low, or 8.5%



Our buy or sell orders are as follows...

Repurchased:

QID (1st position) repurchased at $41.30 - originally sold for a gain of 25% in two months.

VXX (3rd position) repurchased at $33.50 - sold previously for a 20% gain in 4 months.  We also scored a gain of 100% on this 3rd VXX position in one month earlier this year. 


Buy Limits:

QID (2nd position) buy at $37.90 - sold last month for a 13% gain in two days. 

VXX (4th position) buy at $31.00 - sold last month for a gain of 22% in a month.

VXX (5th position) buy at $29.50 - sold last month for a gain of 17% in two weeks.

TZA (4th position) buy at $9.75 - sold last month for a gain of 22% in a month.

TZA (5th position) buy at $9.40 - sold last month for a gain of 47% in in two months. 


Equities overall are now moderately overbought on a short term basis while remaining massively overbought, overvalued and overbelieved in the intermediate and longer term.



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TNA Sold +19% in 9 Days

We've sold our TNA this morning, bought 9 days ago, for a gain of 19%

  



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LRA (Lara Exploration Ltd.)

We booked a 25% gain on Lara Exploration (LRA in Canada, LRAXF in the States), over 11 years ago and have recently returned to it.

It seems to be breaking a more than 2-year down trend:

We own shares at an average of $0.60 CAD and will stop out if it trades below $0.50

 



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Hudson Resources (HUD)

Hudson Resources is in a very unique position for a penny stock.

Hudson Resources (HUD in Canada, HUDRF in the States) has a viable resource and a 100%-owned soon-to-be-commissioned mine and processing plant in Greenland.

Here's Hudson's latest update:

"Hudson is nearing completion of construction and is on budget with this year’s activities. Commissioning of the plant will commence in the next few weeks.  Construction is now 95% complete."

Pictures and videos of the construction progress can be found on the company website at https://hudsonresourcesinc.com/gallery

Here's a 10-year chart showing a major down trend likely soon to be broken:

Here's a 2-year chart showing an 18-month down trend broken today:

We hold shares of HUD at an average cost of $0.44 CAD, and will stop out if it trades below $0.29 CAD. 



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CBS (Bard Ventures) Up over 500%, Stop Raised

Today we're updating this post from a few weeks ago.

Bard Ventures trades in Canada under ticker CBS and under BVTLF in the U.S.

We began accumulating it late last year and it's currently up 520% from our feature price and 675% from our avaerage entry cost.

We're now raising our stop considerably, from $0.18 now to $0.26

We'll raise it yet again if the stock shoots higher soon, bearing in mind these locked-up shares becoming free-trading in or after late November.

  



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Doubled Tesla Short

As suggested last week, we've added to our Tesla short today, bringing our average price down to $358 across two positions.

Real Money:  Tesla's Main Product Isn't Cars, It's Subsidies

CityA.M.:  Tesla hit with SEC subpoena over Model 3 production targets

Bloomberg:  Tesla Short David Einhorn Says Last Quarter Was ‘As Good As It Gets’

Reveal:  Inside Tesla’s factory, a medical clinic designed to ignore injured workers

"When a worker gets smashed by a car part on Tesla’s factory floor, medical staff are forbidden from calling 911 without permission.

The electric carmaker’s contract doctors rarely grant it, instead often insisting that seriously injured workers – including one who severed the top of a finger – be sent to the emergency room in a Lyft.

Injured employees have been systematically sent back to the production line to work through their pain with no modifications, according to former clinic employees, Tesla factory workers and medical records. Some could barely walk.

The on-site medical clinic serving some 10,000 employees at Tesla Inc.’s California assembly plant has failed to properly care for seriously hurt workers, an investigation by Reveal from The Center for Investigative Reporting has found.

The clinic’s practices are unsafe and unethical, five former clinic employees said.
But denying medical care and work restrictions to injured workers is good for one thing: making real injuries disappear.

“The goal of the clinic was to keep as many patients off of the books as possible,” said Anna Watson, a physician assistant who worked at Tesla’s medical clinic for three weeks in August.

Watson has nearly 20 years of experience as a medical professional, examining patients, diagnosing ailments and prescribing medications. She’s treated patients at a petroleum refinery, a steel plant, emergency rooms and a trauma center. But she said she’s never seen anything like what’s happening at Tesla."

"Never seen anything like what's happening at Tesla" would probably be said by any ethical accountant, anyone who's been on a competent board of directors, and anyone who's got a experience in auto manfucaturing too.
 



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GBTC Opened, Stop Level Set

GBTC was entered at $7.45 today, as per this recent post.

No sense risking much on the bitcon, so we'll place a stop slightly below the recent low.

We'll sell out of GBTC if it drops to $6.20 or below.

MarketWatch: Posing as Elon Musk nets hacker about $180,000 worth of bitcoin so far 



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Tesla 100 miles short of its claimed 304-mile range

Tesla continues to astound for all the wrong reasons.

Daily Mail: A new controlled test has revealed the true distances today's most popular EVs can cover

We are short Tesla.



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CRE (Critical Elements Corp.)

Critical Elements Corp. is "a junior mining company in advance exploration stage. The company’s flagship project is the Rose Lithium-Tantalum project located in James-Bay, Quebec with a good geographic location, on-site access to infrastructures like: powerline, roads, airport, railway access and camp."

The company trades under ticker CRE in Canada, CRECF in the States and F12 in Frankfurt.

Its chart shows a nearly 9-month down trend was broken today:

 We hold shares at an average of $0.79



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LTHM (Livent Corp.)

Livent Corp. (LTHM) can essentially be thought of as "lithium".

MarketWatch: Livent IPO: 5 things to know about the lithium producer  

We bought shares today for an average of $16.17 and will stop out should it trade below $13.50

  



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Power, Toro, Tesla

Power Metals Corp. trades in Canada under ticker PWM and in the States as PWRMF.

"Power Metals Corp is one of Canada’s newest premier mining companies with a mandate to explore, develop and acquire high quality mining projects for minerals contributing to power. We are committed to building an arsenal of projects in lithium and other power metals as we see an unprecedented opportunity to supply the staggering growth of the lithium battery industry."

It currently trades at $0.23 CAD and has broken a 10-month down trend:

We hold shares at an average of $0.23

We featured Toro Energy in December of last year when it broke a 3-year down trend.

Toro, trading under ticker TOE in Australia and TOEYF in the States, has essentially traded sideways since then, and still seems like a good speculation in our view, especially with the price of uranium continuing to climb and the sector overall garnering increasing attention.

We've written about Tesla extensively in the past few months, and will probably soon be adding to our most entertaining short position.

It seems at a good short entry point for those who'd been waiting, or re-entry point for those who already booked profits on previous short sales.  

We are short Tesla at an average of $370.



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