Gold & Silver ... Try, Try Again
Our worst trading in years, maybe in the long history of this blog, has arguably been this year in gold and silver-related positions.
Should've used stops.
We've made killings repeatedly in that sector, including turning bearish at the 2011 top and becoming bullish again at the low in late-2015, and we've every confidence that our process remains reliable.
However when inputs move to multi-year, then multi-decade extremes, we're obviously not going to hit the bull's-eye with respect to timing.
For context:
May 22: Buying USLV
June 26: Buying JNUG
August 02: Adding JUNG and USLV
August 13: Adding JNUG, Buying NUGT
August 16: Buying JNUG and NUGT Yet Again
Here's a long-term gold chart:
What now? We're buying more of course, hoping persistence pays.
Simply we should wish to be quite long when GLD, the gold etf, trades above $118 and somewhat bearish below $113.
While chart-wise we remain in limbo, the U.S. dollar seems poised to fall and bearish sentiment on precious metals remains near a record extreme. At the same time a bullish non-confirmation exists as silver made a new low recently while gold did not.
We'll add a 3rd position in USLV if it trades to $62.15 or above.
Should've used stops.
We've made killings repeatedly in that sector, including turning bearish at the 2011 top and becoming bullish again at the low in late-2015, and we've every confidence that our process remains reliable.
However when inputs move to multi-year, then multi-decade extremes, we're obviously not going to hit the bull's-eye with respect to timing.
For context:
May 22: Buying USLV
June 26: Buying JNUG
August 02: Adding JUNG and USLV
August 13: Adding JNUG, Buying NUGT
August 16: Buying JNUG and NUGT Yet Again
Here's a long-term gold chart:
What now? We're buying more of course, hoping persistence pays.
Simply we should wish to be quite long when GLD, the gold etf, trades above $118 and somewhat bearish below $113.
While chart-wise we remain in limbo, the U.S. dollar seems poised to fall and bearish sentiment on precious metals remains near a record extreme. At the same time a bullish non-confirmation exists as silver made a new low recently while gold did not.
We'll add a 3rd position in USLV if it trades to $62.15 or above.
posted by C. Guinness @ 6:21 PM
<< Home