HUD (Hudson Resources) Update

We originally featured Hudson Resources in early November of last year.

Today we note that a very long-term down trend appears to be broken.

HUD remains compelling as a company and as a speculative play based solely on the chart.

Hudson Resources website. 

 



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Gold & Silver Charts, JNUG Sold

JNUG stop was hit today for a gain of 45% in just two months!

Plenty of gold-related positions left, as per the link above.

Silver and junior mining stocks haven't corroborated the move in gold vs. U.S. dollar:



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Gold Positions Update, JNUG Stop Loss, TZA & VXX

This post updates our major positions related to precious metals.

Via this entry on February 20 we celebrated a 30% gain on JNUG in 6 months and booking +36% in 6 months on NUGT.

Originally we had two NUGT positions; the other was sold in early January for a score of 28% in 4.5 months.


That also left 2 JNUG positions, both of which remain open without a stop in place.  One from June of last year at $13.85 and another from last August at $12.15

The 1st of 4 JNUG positions we originally had was sold in late January 2016 for a gain of 28% in 5 months.  The 2nd was sold for a 30% gain as noted above.


2 USLV positions also remain, with no stops in place, one of which is still offered at $93.00

Originally we had 3 USLV positions.  One was sold in early January 2019 for a gain of 25% in 7 weeks.


We picked up ARU and ARG in October of last year at $2.60 and $0.90 respectively.

ARU gained as much as 54% to $4.00, then eventually stopped out at $3.10

ARG subsequently rose over 30% to $1.20 but was eventually stopped out for a small gain at $0.94



On April 22 we added more JNUG at $7.40  That position is currently up 53% in just two months.  

We're now going to place a sell stop on this one at $10.70


The same day we also bid $15.60 for a position in NUGT.  That bid was hit days later and we closed that position recently for a 28% profit in 6 weeks.


On May 10 we suggested NGQ which was at $1.04 and still offers an excellent risk/reward setup as per the original post.

We've also about a half-dozen gold and silver-related junior mining penny stocks per this blog, which we'll update when it's relevant to do so.


On April 22 we posted in bold: "If you're not short stocks, it's a great time to buy TZA and VXXB which trade at $9.52 and $25.45 respectively."

These rose 20% and 31% respectively and are now back down to roughly the same levels as on April 22.  (VXXB now trades as VXX).

We again strongly suggest that if you're not short stocks, it's a great time to do so via TZA and VXX which last traded at $9.18 and $26.01 respectively.
 



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If You Want Rate Cuts ...

Be careful what you wish for.



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The Worst Risk-Reward Setup Ever?

MarketWatch: The ‘Buffett Yardstick’ may be signaling the worst risk-reward setup ever

According to this measure, Felder says investors are paying such a high price for stocks that they are likely to receive basically nothing in return in the coming decade, and that includes dividends.

“At the same time that potential returns look so poor, the potential for risk may be greater than it has been in generations,” he wrote, pointing out that investors have been piling on margin debt lately to increase their exposure to an overheated market. 

Comparing this rising margin debt to the size of the economy, Felder says, shows that investors haven’t been this greedy since 1929. 

“All of this leveraged speculation must at some point be unwound, usually via forced selling during a bear market,” he wrote. 

"The last two times it came even close to the current level the stock market suffered 50% declines.”

Felder warned that this time around, the pieces are in place for an even bigger drop. “In all, long-term investors are risking roughly a 60% decline to try to capture a 0% rate of return over the coming decade in the stock market, one of the worst risk-to-reward setups in history,” he wrote in a blog post.


[Click link above for more, including charts.]

 



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Gold's Remarkable Chart

 

Looks like a major move soon. 

(Click chart to see larger version).

 

 

 

 



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Selling NUGT, +28% in Six Weeks

We entered NUGT at $15.60 in late April.

Just six weeks later it trades at roughly $20 with an hour to go before today's open, while gold itself is just shy of a 52-week high and $25 from a 6-year high.

We'll close this position to book a quick gain of around 28%, depending where it opens, adding it to the 36% profit we scored on NUGT in February as well as another NUGT position sold in early January for a gain of 28%.
 
Fantastic!

NGEX Resources (ticker NGQ trading in Canada and Sweden) was featured here a few weeks ago and still seems an excellent gold-related speculation.

 



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Fantastic Chart



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Buying TBT. Updates: SJB, JNUG, NUGT, TZA, VXX, NGQ

TBT is the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF.

Bullish bond sentiment is over 90%, which typically corresponds with a major top.

We wish to short long bonds via TBT should it trade back above $30.00

If entered we'll stop out should it trade below $25.00, willing to give this position plenty of leeway and more likely to add to it if bonds melt-up much higher.

We still have an extremely out-sized position shorting junk bonds via SJB.

It won't prove to be a huge gainer on a percentage basis, but we can't think of more of a "sure thing" (other than our repeated short call on Tesla over the past year as "a generational opportunity").

Of course the question is "when" and of course we do not know when.

We do know that this historic bull market in debt and imprudence is very long in the tooth, and eventually there will be front-page news of a collapse in junk bonds.

It's not different this time. 


In re: our April 22 posting "Buying JNUG, Bidding NUGT, TZA, VXXB, and Tesla"

JNUG is slightly above our entry.  We have no stop position as of yet.

NUGT bid was hit and it's now 9% higher.  No stop as of yet.

TZA is 17.5% higher.

VXXB is now under ticker VXX and is 20% higher, having traded as much as 31% higher.

May was the worst month of May in general stock markets in the past decade.  Great for us.

We'll recap our short positions soon, perhaps tomorrow (Monday June 03) if general markets are down again, and may even suggest booking significant gains that are on offer for one or more of our positions in TZA.


Tesla is down a further 30% since the April 22 post linked above, and is at a confluence of technical support shown in this chart by the blue lines:

A bounce is not a given though if it occurs it should not surprise.

We remain firm in the belief that Tesla is destined for pricing far below $100, thus

we remain double-short Tesla.

We still believe Tesla to be a generational shorting opportunity, especially if it manages a material rally.

NGQ is highly compelling, as recently detailed.



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