Buying TBT. Updates: SJB, JNUG, NUGT, TZA, VXX, NGQ
TBT is the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF.
Bullish bond sentiment is over 90%, which typically corresponds with a major top.
We wish to short long bonds via TBT should it trade back above $30.00
If entered we'll stop out should it trade below $25.00, willing to give this position plenty of leeway and more likely to add to it if bonds melt-up much higher.
We still have an extremely out-sized position shorting junk bonds via SJB.
It won't prove to be a huge gainer on a percentage basis, but we can't think of more of a "sure thing" (other than our repeated short call on Tesla over the past year as "a generational opportunity").
Of course the question is "when" and of course we do not know when.
We do know that this historic bull market in debt and imprudence is very long in the tooth, and eventually there will be front-page news of a collapse in junk bonds.
It's not different this time.
In re: our April 22 posting "Buying JNUG, Bidding NUGT, TZA, VXXB, and Tesla"
JNUG is slightly above our entry. We have no stop position as of yet.
NUGT bid was hit and it's now 9% higher. No stop as of yet.
TZA is 17.5% higher.
VXXB is now under ticker VXX and is 20% higher, having traded as much as 31% higher.
May was the worst month of May in general stock markets in the past decade. Great for us.
We'll recap our short positions soon, perhaps tomorrow (Monday June 03) if general markets are down again, and may even suggest booking significant gains that are on offer for one or more of our positions in TZA.
Tesla is down a further 30% since the April 22 post linked above, and is at a confluence of technical support shown in this chart by the blue lines:
Bullish bond sentiment is over 90%, which typically corresponds with a major top.
We wish to short long bonds via TBT should it trade back above $30.00
If entered we'll stop out should it trade below $25.00, willing to give this position plenty of leeway and more likely to add to it if bonds melt-up much higher.
We still have an extremely out-sized position shorting junk bonds via SJB.
It won't prove to be a huge gainer on a percentage basis, but we can't think of more of a "sure thing" (other than our repeated short call on Tesla over the past year as "a generational opportunity").
Of course the question is "when" and of course we do not know when.
We do know that this historic bull market in debt and imprudence is very long in the tooth, and eventually there will be front-page news of a collapse in junk bonds.
It's not different this time.
In re: our April 22 posting "Buying JNUG, Bidding NUGT, TZA, VXXB, and Tesla"
JNUG is slightly above our entry. We have no stop position as of yet.
NUGT bid was hit and it's now 9% higher. No stop as of yet.
TZA is 17.5% higher.
VXXB is now under ticker VXX and is 20% higher, having traded as much as 31% higher.
May was the worst month of May in general stock markets in the past decade. Great for us.
We'll recap our short positions soon, perhaps tomorrow (Monday June 03) if general markets are down again, and may even suggest booking significant gains that are on offer for one or more of our positions in TZA.
Tesla is down a further 30% since the April 22 post linked above, and is at a confluence of technical support shown in this chart by the blue lines:
A bounce is not a given though if it occurs it should not surprise.
We remain firm in the belief that Tesla is destined for pricing far below $100, thus
we remain double-short Tesla.
We still believe Tesla to be a generational shorting opportunity, especially if it manages a material rally.
NGQ is highly compelling, as recently detailed.
posted by C. Guinness @ 7:23 PM
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