Buying SLB

SLB (Schlumberger Ltd.) is "the world's leading provider of technology for reservoir characterization, drilling, production, and processing to the oil and gas industry. Working in more than 85 countries and employing approximately 100,000 people who represent over 140 nationalities, Schlumberger supplies the industry's most comprehensive range of products and services, from exploration through production and integrated pore-to-pipeline solutions for hydrocarbon recovery that optimize reservoir performance."

More interesting to us is its chart:

The green lines, obviously, are up trends.  The red connect points of resistance.

The blue is an up trend that stretches back 30 years, beyond the scope of this chart.  The purple is a 50-year up trend.

Markets overall, and so too oil-related stocks, are due for a bounce lasting days or perhaps weeks.  Who knows?  This may even prove to be "the" bottom, but we doubt it.

SLB pays a $0.50 quarterly dividend.  At least for now.  We'll leave fundamental analysis to those who care for it. 

We're buying SLB at the open tomorrow, and bidding for another position at $32.

For those more conservative, look to bid just above $30 (blue up trend) or in the low-$20's should it get there (just above purple up trend).

For the time being, we're just looking for a short-term bounce play on any long position.


This has been the worst December for stocks since 1931, including the worst Christmas Eve on record.  Or if you've been positioned as we have, it's probably been the best by far.

Either way, here's wishing you and yours a very Merry Christmas!



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Sold VXX (1st Position) for 41% Gain, Positions Recap

We've sold our 1st VXX position for a gain of 41% in 6 months.

It was previously sold earlier this year for a gain of 68% in 2 months then repurchased in June.

We now hold 1 position in VXX, 1 in TZA, 3 in TNA, and 1 in QID.

We'll place a bid to repurchase today's sold VXX position up to a limit of $40.00

Equities overall are now oversold on a short term basis while remaining overbought in the intermediate term and massively overbought, overvalued and overbelieved in the longer term.

Any bounce should prove once again to only be a bounce, lasting days or perhaps a week or three into the new year.  

So far selling has been very orderly with no sign of panic. 

If there's more selling next week, we may take profits on another of our short positions.

We only hold TNA as a swing trade in case of a bounce and will take any profits on that quickly in case of a rally.


Our remaining major short positions are:

QID repurchased at $41.30 - originally sold for a gain of 25% in two months.

VXX (2nd position) repurchased at $43.50 - sold previously for a 100% gain in 1 month.

TZA (1st position) bought at $12.46 a year ago. 

TSLA (Tesla Motors) double-short at an average of $358

Buy Limits to Repurchase Closed Positions:

QID (2nd position) buy at $37.90 - originally sold for a 13% gain in two days. 

VXX (1st position) buy at $40.00 -  sold today for a gain of 41% in 6 months. Previously sold for a 68% gain in 2 months, then repurchased in June.

VXX (3rd position) buy at $36.60 - originally sold for a 49% gain in 4 months.

VXX (4th position) buy at $31.00 - originally sold for a gain of 28% in a month.

VXX (5th position) buy at $29.50 - originally sold for a gain of 17% in two weeks.

TZA (2nd position) buy at $13.90 - originally sold for a gain of 31% in 11.5 months.

TZA (3rd position) buy at $11.80 - previously sold for a gain of 41% in 9 months.  We also scored a gain of 35% in two weeks on this 3rd TZA position earlier this year.

TZA (4th position) buy at $9.75 - originally sold for a gain of 47% in in two months.   

TZA (5th position) buy at $9.40 - originally sold for a gain of 22% in a month.

Recapping from recent posts:

Keep this post in mind going forward:

Also be aware:

The ultimate bottom for stocks is far, far lower. 

Take responsiblity!  If you're suffering losses it is not the fault of the Federal Reserve, high-frequency trading algorithms, or President Trump.  Your gains or losses are absolutely due to your doing and nothing else.

Nobody reading this blog regularly should be surprised to see markets tanking this year.

December 11, 2017: Household Participation In Stocks Near All-Time Record 

"Reject the idea that this is a 'hated' bull market.  It's extremely over-subscribed and over-believed."

December 14, 2017: TZA About To Break 20-Month Down Trend

December 15, 2017: Everyone All-in?

"The masses riding a mania wave they don't comprehend, unhedged and deeply in debt, will learn a very hard and extremely expensive lesson in mean reversion."

January 12, 2018: It's Not Different This Time

January 31, 2018: US Financial Conditions Index Signals Extreme Risk

There have been a great many more such articles posted throught this year, often sourced for free from the world's major investment banks so it's disingenuous to blame "them" - not Goldman, not "the 1%", nor the market makers.

If we can easily do it, year after year and bust after boom as we've proven via this blog since 2006, then so can you.

It begins by taking responsibility. 

Being long stocks this year was an act of extreme greed and willful disregard for market fundamentals, history, and human nature.


It's never different.

 

SJB has posted its highest close since June of 2017

Our 6x position shorting junk bonds via SJB is looking very good.

There's still plenty of time to very profitably short junk bonds.  

2019 should be a terrible year for bad debt.  We suggest acting accordingly in personal finances and in portfolio exposure.



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Short & Swing Positions Update, SJB

Here's yet another update on our short positions and repurchase attempts for 2018.

Please see yesterday's post for a full update and current bids to repurchase sold positions.

Today we sold a TZA position for a 31% gain.

We'll place a bid to repurchase that 2nd TZA position at $13.90

We again added to our TNA position at $43.25, which now cost-averages to $44.35 over the three positions. 

With TNA we're hoping to capitalize on a market bounce, as we did in early November when we flipped it for a gain of 19% in 9 days.

This time we'll probably try to sell the respective positions for 5% - 10% higher than our average cost, but much more important will be what opportunity for profit the market chooses to offer us... if any.

While a big bounce through the new year is increasingly likely, should markets instead keep plunging we'll just try to trade our way out of this very overweighted long position.

Equities overall are finally oversold on a short term basis while a bit overbought in the intermediate term, and massively overbought, overvalued and overbelieved in the longer term.

So far selling has been totally orderly, with no sign of panic.

It is often from oversold conditions that panic selling occurs, and if that happens we'll sell another of our levered short holdings.

Please keep in mind this blog is a diary, not a recommendation of what to do in any way.

If you can't grow your account during bull markets, or if you're not considerably up so far in 2018 despite most indexes and stocks being down for the year, it is a terrible idea to try to time bear market bounces. 

We now hold 2 positions in VXX, 1 in TZA, 3 in TNA, and 1 in QID.

 

Keep this post in mind going forward:

Also be aware:

The ultimate bottom for stocks is far, far lower.

SJB has posted its highest close since June of 2017. 

Our 6x position shorting junk bonds via SJB is looking very good.



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Sold TZA (2nd Position) for 31% Gain

Still fearing a market bounce, we've sold our 2nd TZA position at $15.80

We may add another TNA position looking for a quick flip if it rises to $43.25 or higher.

Full update later today.



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KTR, Kintavar Exploration

Today KTR was up 100% since our suggestion in early November that it looked like a good time to speculate in it again. 

We now suggest taking those gains, especially if you booked a 200% profit on it earlier in the year along with us.

Could it go far higher?  Sure.  We've no opinion on the company or its prospects.  We just feel it's not prudent to ignore such easy, fast and big scores. 

If nothing else, sell half to ride the rest essentially for free.



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Sold VXX (3rd) for 49% Gain, Short & Swing Positions Update

Another update on our short positions and repurchase attempts for 2018.

We sold a VXX position late today for a 49% gain at $43.16, in fear of a coming bounce.
 

We'll repurchase it if it drops to $36.60 or lower.

We also added to our TNA position at $42.40, which now cost-averages to $44.90 

With TNA we're hoping to capitalize on a market bounce, as we did in early November when we flipped it for a gain of 19% in 9 days.

Goldman Sachs (GS) is at a supportive trend stretching back over a decade, while the DJIA has closed at a new low for the year but just slightly below the February nadir, so a technical bounce is quite possible.

We now hold 2 positions in VXX, 2 in TZA, 2 in TNA, and 1 in QID.


Our major short positions are:

QID repurchased at $41.30 - originally sold for a gain of 25% in two months.
 

VXX (2nd position) repurchased at $43.50 - sold previously for a 100% gain in 1 month.

VXX (1st position) repurchased at $33.00 - sold previously for a 68% in 2 months.

TZA (2nd position) bought at $12.05 early this year.

TZA (1st position) bought at $12.46 a year ago. 

TSLA (Tesla Motors) double-short at an average of $358

Buy Limits to Repurchase Sold Positions:

QID (2nd position) buy at $37.90 - originally sold for a 13% gain in two days. 

VXX (3rd position) buy at $36.60 - originally sold for a 49% gain in 4 months as per above.

VXX (4th position) buy at $31.00 - originally sold for a gain of 28% in a month.

VXX (5th position) buy at $29.50 - originally sold for a gain of 17% in two weeks.

TZA (3rd position) buy at $11.80 - originally sold today for a gain of 41% in 9 months.  We also scored a gain of 35% in two weeks on this 3rd TZA position earlier this year.

TZA (4th position) buy at $9.75 - originally sold for a gain of 47% in in two months.   

TZA (5th position) buy at $9.40 - originally sold for a gain of 22% in a month.

The selling has been orderly so far, with no sign of panic.  

If finally there is some panic selling before a relief rally, we'll seek to sell at least one more levered short position ideally for 5-15% higher than today's close.

We may even add to our TNA position.  It will depend on market action.

While we normally post our entry and exit levels well in advance, in extreme situations we must react intraday and of course everyone must act individually.

Take responsiblity!  If you're suffering losses it is not the fault of the Federal Reserve, high-frequency trading algorithms, or President Trump.  Your gains or losses are absolutely due to your doing.

Nobody reading this blog regularly should be surprised to see markets tanking this year.

December 11, 2017: Household Participation In Stocks Near All-Time Record 

"Reject the idea that this is a 'hated' bull market.  It's extremely over-subscribed and over-believed."

December 14, 2017: TZA About To Break 20-Month Down Trend

December 15, 2017: Everyone All-in?

"The masses riding a mania wave they don't comprehend, unhedged and deeply in debt, will learn a very hard and extremely expensive lesson in mean reversion.

Don't worry, it's coming."

January 12, 2018: It's Not Different This Time

January 31, 2018: US Financial Conditions Index Signals Extreme Risk

There have been a great many more such articles posted throught this year, often sourced for free from the world's major investment banks so it's disingenuous to blame "them" - not Goldman, not "the 1%", nor the market makers.

If we can easily do it, year after year and bust after boom as we've proven via this blog since 2006, then so can you.

It begins by taking responsiblity and not being greedy.  

History repeats, as sure as your fundamental trading and investing errors have been repeated if you're not ahead, or making a killing, in the markets this year.   

It's never different.

We'll do our best to post before or immediately after any trades, but some days are just too busy and frankly these days almost too much fun!

Equities overall are just moderately oversold on a short term basis while remaining overbought in the intermediate term and massively overbought, overvalued and overbelieved in the longer term.

Any bounce should prove once again to only be a bounce, lasting days or perhaps a week or three into the new year.  

 

Keep this post in mind going forward:

Also be aware:

The ultimate bottom for stocks is far, far lower.



PLEASE READ DISCLAIMER AT BOTTOM OF PAGE

Tesla Loses Two More Execs

Tesla has lost two more key executives: Matt Casebolt - Sr. Director of Engineering, Body, Exterior, Light and Closures, and Fiona Taylor - Sr. Vice President / Senior Director Customer Support and Business Operations.

Here's the updated and extensive list of Tesla executive departures.

Last night Tesla CEO Musk staged a laughable display of his latest idea stolen from the distant past, on behalf of his Boring Company. 

This Deadspin article sums it up sarcastically and well, albeit with expletives. 

If you enjoy the article, the comments section may be amusing too.

Even the mainstream media morning news shows, which are normally totally lightweight and light-hearted, were making fun of Musk and his ridiculous presentation.

Why would he bother with this latest public embarassment? 

Some say to obscure the fact that his SpaceX company failed to deliver an important launch, which went virtually unreported in favor of the Boring tunnel story. 

Reuters: SpaceX cancels first U.S. national security mission
 
We are short Tesla.

 



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Tesla News

There's always Tesla in the news, or news that relates to the brand, and it seems to be always bad or if it's good it's found out to be false.

Tesla's head of global sales, Dan Kim, has left the company.

Kim had been with Tesla since early this year, when the previous head of global sales departed.

Such turnover at the upper levels is a massive stridently flapping red flag for a company supposedly deluged with demand, that's purportedly about to be a major global player in its industry while freeing the world of responsible corporate governance, reliable well-made vehicles and accurate financial reporting. 

First, a must-read feature revealing CEO Musk's considerable charm and motivational skills.

Wired: Life Inside Tesla's Production Hell


Next, apparently more malfeasance.

Wall Street Journal: Elon Musk’s New Boring Co. Faced Questions Over SpaceX Financial Ties 

Jalopnik: Tesla Employee Claims It's Still Preventing Union Organizing
 

We've read hundreds, and there are problably thousands, of anecdotes such as the following, and far worse when it comes to Tesla's abysmal, or complete lack, of customer service.  

Quora: Why Did You Sell Your Tesla?


Now some general points.

The Hill: Trouble at Tesla

Credit Bubble Stocks: Ten Problems With Tesla


Lastly, while Musk's public promise of totally autonomous Tesla cars by the end of 2017 is already obviously proven to be yet another of his compulsive lies, next are reasons why it won't happen any time soon for any brand.

Ars Technica: Why driving is hard—even for AIs


We are double-short Tesla.



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NUGT at 2-Year Down Trend

NUGT is up against a down trend stretching back more than 2 years:

We  hold two positions in NUGT, at a cost averaging $15.78 

It currently trades at $17.50 and we remain bullish.



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Short Positions Update

An update on our short positions & repurchase attempts for 2018.

We now hold 3 positions in VXX, 2 in TZA and 1 in QID.

We had one market long position in TNA, sold in early November for a gain of 19% in 9 days.  

Today, not diarized here, we repurchased TNA at $47.40 hoping for another quick bounce.   

Keep this in mind going forward:

Also be aware:

Our major short positions are:

QID repurchased at $41.30 - originally sold for a gain of 25% in two months.

VXX (3rd position) bought at $29.00
 

VXX (2nd position) repurchased at $43.50 - sold previously for a 100% gain in 1 month.

VXX (1st position) repurchased at $33.00 - sold previously for a 68% in 2 months.

TZA (2nd position) bought at $12.05 early this year.

TZA (1st position) bought at $12.46 a year ago. 

TSLA (Tesla Motors) double-short at an average of $358


A typical Tesla owner (car or stock):

Buy Limits:

QID (2nd position) buy at $37.90 - originally sold for a 13% gain in two days. 

VXX (4th position) buy at $31.00 - originally sold for a gain of 28% in a month.

VXX (5th position) buy at $29.50 - originally sold for a gain of 17% in two weeks.

TZA (3rd position) buy at $11.80 - originally sold today for a gain of 41% in 9 months.  We also scored a gain of 35% in two weeks on this 3rd TZA position earlier this year.

TZA (4th position) buy at $9.75 - originally sold for a gain of 47% in in two months.   

TZA (5th position) buy at $9.40 - originally sold for a gain of 22% in a month.


Equities overall are now moderately oversold on a short term basis while remaining massively overbought, overvalued and overbelieved in the intermediate and longer term.



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Selling 3rd TZA Position +41%

Our 3rd TZA position was purchased back in March, which we're now selling as it trades 41% higher.

We'll post a full update on current short positions and repurchase levels later this afternoon.



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