Sold VXX (3rd) for 49% Gain, Short & Swing Positions Update
Another update on our short positions and repurchase attempts for 2018.
We sold a VXX position late today for a 49% gain at $43.16, in fear of a coming bounce.
We'll repurchase it if it drops to $36.60 or lower.
We also added to our TNA position at $42.40, which now cost-averages to $44.90
With TNA we're hoping to capitalize on a market bounce, as we did in early November when we flipped it for a gain of 19% in 9 days.
Goldman Sachs (GS) is at a supportive trend stretching back over a decade, while the DJIA has closed at a new low for the year but just slightly below the February nadir, so a technical bounce is quite possible.
Goldman Sachs (GS) is at a supportive trend stretching back over a decade, while the DJIA has closed at a new low for the year but just slightly below the February nadir, so a technical bounce is quite possible.
We now hold 2 positions in VXX, 2 in TZA, 2 in TNA, and 1 in QID.
Our major short positions are:
QID repurchased at $41.30 - originally sold for a gain of 25% in two months.
TSLA (Tesla Motors) double-short at an average of $358
Buy Limits to Repurchase Sold Positions:
QID (2nd position) buy at $37.90 - originally sold for a 13% gain in two days.
VXX (3rd position) buy at $36.60 - originally sold for a 49% gain in 4 months as per above.
VXX (4th position) buy at $31.00 - originally sold for a gain of 28% in a month.
VXX (5th position) buy at $29.50 - originally sold for a gain of 17% in two weeks.
VXX (5th position) buy at $29.50 - originally sold for a gain of 17% in two weeks.
TZA (3rd position) buy at $11.80 - originally sold today for a gain of 41% in 9 months. We also scored a gain of 35% in two weeks on this 3rd TZA position earlier this year.
TZA (4th position) buy at $9.75 - originally sold for a gain of 47% in in two months.
TZA (5th position) buy at $9.40 - originally sold for a gain of 22% in a month.
TZA (4th position) buy at $9.75 - originally sold for a gain of 47% in in two months.
TZA (5th position) buy at $9.40 - originally sold for a gain of 22% in a month.
The selling has been orderly so far, with no sign of panic.
If finally there is some panic selling before a relief rally, we'll seek to sell at least one more levered short position ideally for 5-15% higher than today's close.
We may even add to our TNA position. It will depend on market action.
While we normally post our entry and exit levels well in advance, in extreme situations we must react intraday and of course everyone must act individually.
While we normally post our entry and exit levels well in advance, in extreme situations we must react intraday and of course everyone must act individually.
Take responsiblity! If you're suffering losses it is not the fault of the Federal Reserve, high-frequency trading algorithms, or President Trump. Your gains or losses are absolutely due to your doing.
Nobody reading this blog regularly should be surprised to see markets tanking this year.
December 11, 2017: Household Participation In Stocks Near All-Time Record
"Reject the idea that this is a 'hated' bull market. It's extremely over-subscribed and over-believed."
December 14, 2017: TZA About To Break 20-Month Down Trend
December 15, 2017: Everyone All-in?
"The masses riding a mania wave they don't comprehend, unhedged and deeply in debt, will learn a very hard and extremely expensive lesson in mean reversion.
Don't worry, it's coming."
January 12, 2018: It's Not Different This Time
January 31, 2018: US Financial Conditions Index Signals Extreme Risk
There have been a great many more such articles posted throught this year, often sourced for free from the world's major investment banks so it's disingenuous to blame "them" - not Goldman, not "the 1%", nor the market makers.
If we can easily do it, year after year and bust after boom as we've proven via this blog since 2006, then so can you.
It begins by taking responsiblity and not being greedy.
History repeats, as sure as your fundamental trading and investing errors have been repeated if you're not ahead, or making a killing, in the markets this year.
It's never different.
We'll do our best to post before or immediately after any trades, but some days are just too busy and frankly these days almost too much fun!
If we can easily do it, year after year and bust after boom as we've proven via this blog since 2006, then so can you.
It begins by taking responsiblity and not being greedy.
History repeats, as sure as your fundamental trading and investing errors have been repeated if you're not ahead, or making a killing, in the markets this year.
It's never different.
We'll do our best to post before or immediately after any trades, but some days are just too busy and frankly these days almost too much fun!
Equities overall are just moderately oversold on a short term basis while remaining overbought in the intermediate term and massively overbought, overvalued and overbelieved in the longer term.
Any bounce should prove once again to only be a bounce, lasting days or perhaps a week or three into the new year.
Also be aware:
The ultimate bottom for stocks is far, far lower.
posted by C. Guinness @ 11:15 PM
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