Selling TVIX and TZA, JNUG
On January 7 we warned:
" We have a proprietary indicator flashing "sell" on stocks as of today, for the first time since mid-November, after which the DJIA lost over 700 points.
This signal has turned bearish just before the past 11 of 12 market slides of 500 or more points in the DJIA, including the major plunges of early and late 2018.
At this stage, we reasonably expect much more than a 500-point drop"
Stocks climbed until the 17th, then dropped over 1200 points. That indicator was then 12 for 13.
It triggered again on February 21.
From the close on that day to the close yesterday the 27th, just three days later, the DJIA dropped almost 3500 points, and as much as another 850 points in overnight futures trading!
13 for 14 now, as this week markets showed how extremely overvalued stocks had really been. As a result some of our hedges have skyrocketed.
People may blame "coronavirus" concerns for their losses, however it was absolutely imprudent to be net long stocks before any such news hit, as we'd warned repeatedly.
Since there may be a major short-term bounce in at least the short term, we'll book some gains where we can.
We're selling our two remaining TVIX positions at the market at Friday's opening bell.
As of this writing, TVIX is as high as $120 in pre-market trading.
Those two positions averaged to a cost of $70.15 while the third TVIX position we had was sold for a 17.5% gain when it hit our $64 offer, all per this post.
We have two TZA positions, per this post, averaging a cost of $41.83 which we'll also sell when the market opens.
TZA is as high as $50 in pre-market trading as this is being written.
The JUNG repurchase mentioned in the post linked above was subsequently sold for a gain of 36% as per this post.
We recently also had a 3rd TZA recent position which lost 5.5% per the stop detailed in the link above.
Additionally we have many short positions still open from last year, including in TZA.
We'll offer two of those other TZA positions for sale at $50.
Stocks remain very overvalued even today.
Further updates and a 2019 recap soon.
" We have a proprietary indicator flashing "sell" on stocks as of today, for the first time since mid-November, after which the DJIA lost over 700 points.
This signal has turned bearish just before the past 11 of 12 market slides of 500 or more points in the DJIA, including the major plunges of early and late 2018.
At this stage, we reasonably expect much more than a 500-point drop"
Stocks climbed until the 17th, then dropped over 1200 points. That indicator was then 12 for 13.
It triggered again on February 21.
From the close on that day to the close yesterday the 27th, just three days later, the DJIA dropped almost 3500 points, and as much as another 850 points in overnight futures trading!
13 for 14 now, as this week markets showed how extremely overvalued stocks had really been. As a result some of our hedges have skyrocketed.
People may blame "coronavirus" concerns for their losses, however it was absolutely imprudent to be net long stocks before any such news hit, as we'd warned repeatedly.
Since there may be a major short-term bounce in at least the short term, we'll book some gains where we can.
We're selling our two remaining TVIX positions at the market at Friday's opening bell.
As of this writing, TVIX is as high as $120 in pre-market trading.
Those two positions averaged to a cost of $70.15 while the third TVIX position we had was sold for a 17.5% gain when it hit our $64 offer, all per this post.
We have two TZA positions, per this post, averaging a cost of $41.83 which we'll also sell when the market opens.
TZA is as high as $50 in pre-market trading as this is being written.
The JUNG repurchase mentioned in the post linked above was subsequently sold for a gain of 36% as per this post.
We recently also had a 3rd TZA recent position which lost 5.5% per the stop detailed in the link above.
Additionally we have many short positions still open from last year, including in TZA.
We'll offer two of those other TZA positions for sale at $50.
Stocks remain very overvalued even today.
Further updates and a 2019 recap soon.
posted by C. Guinness @ 5:46 AM
