Silver Study and Goldman Sachs

We remain long-term very bearish on gold and silver.

The breaking point may be imminent. 

A 5-year chart of the silver ETF, SLV, is below.  Below the long-term uptrend, shown in red, and especially below $25, the silver bull that ended in May of 2011 will be over by the reckoning of anyone balanced. 

When the most stubborn bulls finally give up their wild conspiracy theories and doomsday fantasies and sell, it'll get ugly indeed.  Above the green line, especially above $35, we'd have to be bullish for awhile. 

 

 

The chart above is of ZSL, a double-short silver ETF.  Above $54, the green line, is a probable break-out point.

The chart below is GS.  We've been long-time fans of the stock, and have done well with it per this blog.  It also serves as an excellent market barometer, as we've shown repeatedly herein, so market bulls should view this with serious concern. 

With the green lines in the chart above we illustrate a massive "rising wedge" pattern which should soon break down.  Upside momentum measures for Goldman Sachs are currently at decade-long extremes.  Probably it'll meet the black uptrend later this year. 

We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.


To be notified when this blog is updated : Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated, not if a blog entry only contains general commentary.

A Bear Market in Gold Miners

In the chart below we see the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF at the lowest close of almost the past four years.  Should this ETF drop another dollar, it'll also be hitting the lowest intraday price of almost the past four years.  Typically bull markets are not characterized by multi-year lows.   

 

China Readying Bullion-Backed Gold ETFs.  Some think this news may be the saving grace for gold and silver.  More likely it is yet another sign of the top having come and gone in precious metals.

George Soros dumps gold as prices sink.  Gold bugs once stridently celebrated Soros' buying of gold, claiming it was extremely bullish.  They are now of course dead silent about his selling. 

Sooner or later there will be a proverbial stampede for the exits and shares in gold-related ETF's, along with their physical holdings, will be dumped hard and fast.  At that time, something like this past week's big plunge in gold and gold miners will be looked back upon fondly as the good old days.


    

We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.


To be notified when this blog is updated : Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated, not if a blog entry only contains general commentary.

Market Update

It continues to look as though a material top is forming, and typically the longer it takes the harder the subsequent fall.  Below is a chart that shows that the 13-day average between highs and lows is matching the lows of the past few decades.

Normally after this happens there is either a massive rally or decline in the stock market.  It's tough to imagine a massive rally at this stage.

 

 

The next chart shows margin debt at extreme highs.  Typically this precedes a big drop in equities.

 



Anecdotally, economic indicators appear to be decaying globally.  For one such anecdote, consider "Wal-Mart has said sales this month have been a “total disaster”, according to leaked internal emails."




We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated : Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated, not if a blog entry only contains general commentary.