Gold & Silver Both At Long-Term Trend Resistance



PLEASE READ DISCLAIMER AT BOTTOM OF PAGE

Hated? Buying TVIX

Many say this has been a "hated" bull market; that retail investors have not participated.

That's untrue.

Stocks and sentiment have gone far higher than we'd expected, however the end of this epic rally is near and its extremity has only provided us the opportunity for more extreme gains on the down side.

To our cornucopia of short positions, we're adding TVIX once it trades back above $14.05

If triggered, we'll sell out should it fall to below $11.

TVIX is basically same as VXX but with greater leverage.

Know what you're doing, especially with levered instruments!  Always use stops, and if in doubt stay out.

If there is a stock rally due to tomorrow's U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision, expect it to be short-lived.  Hours, or days at most.


It's a good time to revisit these recent posts:

Tesla Update (we'll likely add to our Tesla short should it rise another $20 or so).

If You Want Rate Cuts...

The Worst Risk-Reward Setup Ever?


It's not different this time.

 



PLEASE READ DISCLAIMER AT BOTTOM OF PAGE

Congested, Epic Top

Tops take time. 

Stocks are rolling over.



PLEASE READ DISCLAIMER AT BOTTOM OF PAGE

Purchasing Power Over Time

This is what governments are doing to responsible, hard-working people worldwide: 

Increase in wages, and the "value" of homes and stock portfolios don't look quite so good if factored for currency devaluation.



PLEASE READ DISCLAIMER AT BOTTOM OF PAGE

Gold Positions Update, JNUG Stop Raised

This post is essentially a reprint of this update of a month ago, with the only changes being that we're raising the stop on JNUG considerably to $82.90 and adjusting prices on any stocks mentioned to the current market price.

Keep in mind JNUG underwent a 5:1 consolidation recently, making our effective entry price $37.00 (5x the original $7.40).

As of this writing, the position is +134% in 3 months.


Updating our major positions related to precious metals:

Per this entry on February 20 we celebrated a 30% gain on JNUG in 6 months and booking +36% in 6 months on NUGT.

Originally we had two NUGT positions; the other was sold in early January for a score of 28% in 4.5 months.


That also left 2 JNUG positions, both of which remain open without a stop in place.  One from June of last year at $69.25 and another from last August at $60.75

JNUG currently trades at $86.40


The 1st of 4 JNUG positions we originally had was sold in late January 2019 for a gain of 28% in 5 months.  The 2nd was sold for a 30% gain as noted above.


2 USLV positions also remain, with no stops in place, one of which is still offered at $93.00

Originally we had 3 USLV positions.  One was sold in early January 2019 for a gain of 25% in 7 weeks.


We picked up ARU and ARG in October of last year at $2.60 and $0.90 respectively.

ARU gained as much as 54% to $4.00, then eventually stopped out at $3.10

ARG subsequently rose over 30% to $1.20 but was eventually stopped out for a small gain at $0.94



On April 22 we added more JNUG at $7.40  That position is currently up 134% in just three months.  

As per above, we're now going to place a sell stop on this one at $82.90


The same day we also bid $15.60 for a position in NUGT.  That bid was hit days later and we closed that position recently for a 28% profit in 6 weeks.


On May 10 we suggested NGQ which was at $1.04 and still offers an excellent risk/reward setup as per the original post.

We've also about a half-dozen gold and silver-related junior mining penny stocks per this blog, which we'll update when it's relevant to do so.


On April 22 we posted in bold: "If you're not short stocks, it's a great time to buy TZA and VXXB which trade at $47.60 (split-adjusted) and $25.45 respectively."

These rose 20% and 31% respectively and are now back down to roughly the same levels as on April 22.  (VXXB now trades as VXX).

We again strongly suggest that if you're not short stocks, it's a great time to do so via TZA and VXX which last traded at $46.36 and $23.01 respectively.
 



PLEASE READ DISCLAIMER AT BOTTOM OF PAGE

Shorting PLCE

Children's Place (PLCE) is a retailer of unnecessary high-priced rubbish for children that's having an increasingly hard time of it.

USA Today: As part of a multiyear plan to close 300 stores by 2020, the New Jersey-based retailer announced this week it plans on closing another 40 to 45 stores in 2019.

Trading at $100 currently, down from a high of $160 last October and failing to participate in the general-market melt-up since the start of June, we see it at a good short entry point.

We're short PLCE, not previously posted in this blog, since late May of this year at an average price of $102.50

A prudent stop would be at $117 in our estimation, which is just above its 2019 high.



PLEASE READ DISCLAIMER AT BOTTOM OF PAGE

Adding 7th SJB

We hold six positions in SJB, the Short Junk Bonds ETF.

Repeating from that post in December:

"We don't suggest SJB will rise spectacularly however, since it is not a levered inverse instrument.  Instead the attraction to us is that this seems as close to a "sure thing" as it ever gets, ergo a great place to put funds as the bear market in general equities unfolds."

"Holding such an outsized position is admittedly not totally prudent, however extreme markets arguably call for extreme positions and we will certainly stop out should junk bonds trade back above the well-established down trend shown in red."

SJB last traded at $21.42

Here's an updated chart of JNK, the Junk Bonds ETF, looking poised to plunge:

And a chart of SJB showing a "declining wedge" pattern, which typically resolves decidedly upward.

Bloomberg: A Lehman Survivor Is Prepping for the Next Credit Downturn
 
We'll now add a 7th SJB position.

 



PLEASE READ DISCLAIMER AT BOTTOM OF PAGE

Gold & Russell Triangles, TZA

Triangle patterns tend to resolve in the prevailing direction.

For gold, that'd be upward:

For the Russell 2000 small-caps index, and likely for stocks overall, that'll be downward:

TZA is a 3x levered effective short on the Russell small-caps index.

TZA closed today at $45.88 and we love it at this level.



PLEASE READ DISCLAIMER AT BOTTOM OF PAGE

We Are Here



PLEASE READ DISCLAIMER AT BOTTOM OF PAGE

NGQ (NGEX Resources) Update

Recent news from NGQ (NGEX Resources) may be of interest. 

Click here to read it.

We entered NGQ a couple months ago.

We've no opinion on the proposed spin-off transaction, and maintain our original stop level on NGQ.

 



PLEASE READ DISCLAIMER AT BOTTOM OF PAGE