Riding The Gravy Train: December 2006

Riding The Gravy Train

Beating the market is fun and profitable. This is how we do it.

Thursday, December 28, 2006

Long SF

We're going long SF, Silver Fields Resources Inc. at $0.14 on the TSX Venture Exchange.

As usual, company information is found by clicking on the graphic.









We like the slow, steady rise throughout the year on enough volume to provide good liquidity. If resource stocks continue on their trend and Silver Fields stock starts trading over the $0.15 level, it seems to us that it might enjoy a significant up-swing.

$0.10 appears to be the support so for us this is an ideal level at which to buy, with limited downside risk.


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Saturday, December 23, 2006

Long PGR, selling NOC, INFY, AMD

Long PGR at $0.92 on the Canadian TSX Venture Exchange.



One of our recent plays, Altius (ALS is currently +49% since our call in early October) has bought a significant amount as seen in this recent press release. Their record is exemplary and we simply follow in that proven path of success.

Do read the recent press release which summarizes the company's many compelling prospects, including a joint venture with one of our best holdings Crosshair Explorations, CXX (+66% on our add call, and currently +147% on our original purchase).



Some selling to book gains and free funds for new positions :

NOC at $5.97 is up 51% for us. We are still bullish in the long term, but feel it will consolidate awhile or even fall to what we believe is support in the $4.00-$5.00 range and don't wish to risk losing the good quick gains we've made here.

INFY at $52.93 is up 31% since our August call, but looks toppy currently so we're taking those hefty gains.

AMD at $20.77 is up 3.3% after taking over our original call which was ATYT. We went along with the conversion into AMD shares but no longer like the looks of it. We're skeptical it'll hold the $20.00 level and below that we'd rather be short in the long term. For now we're neutral however, and taking the gains off the table.


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Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Long MZU, SNO

Continued success ! Highlights so far this week :



- Uranium stocks running hard, as we'd hoped. We are fortunate to hold too many to list here.




- WNR, Western Refining has thus far bounced back very well after yesterday's downgrade by one analyst.

- MAI, Minera Andes is rising on the announcement of compelling prospects.

- DCS, Dreman Claymore hit an all-time high.

- EMC, Energy Minerals Corp. (EMU in the US) hit an all-time high.

- ALS, Altius Minerals Corp. sits a few cents below its all-time high.

- QTA, Quaterra Resources sits just shy of its all-time high.

- HPS.a Hammond Power hit an all-time high.

- YGC, YGC Resources hit an all-time high.


In the hopes for more of the same we go long MZU, Mesa Uranium Corp. at $0.67 and long SNO, Snowfield Development Corp. at $0.16 , both on the TSX Venture Exchange.

The Mesa Uranium call is a simple one.

Uranium remains our favorite sector and the MZU chart suggests an imminent break above $0.75 and perhaps over the significant $1.00 level.

The chart and headlines for Snowfield Development are encouraging, making an argument for some buying to arrive in anticipation of test results. The $0.10 level appears to us to be the current support.

Monday, December 18, 2006

Fantastic news for uranium stocks, not so for WNR

Uranium fans may have noticed the significant rise in price on Friday, and indeed our many uranium holdings jumped significantly today.

Uranium prices up about 10 pct in auction - Reuters Mon Dec 18, 2006

Nothing has changed in our sentiment regarding current holdings, as detailed in recent updates, with the exception perhaps of WNR which was the vicitm of some bad news today.

A major analyst downgrade to "sell" is rare, and too often seems to come when a stock has already lost most of its value so the timing of this puzzles us. We remain holders, but we're likely sellers if it closes under $25 in order to preserve capital and book the gains that remain. If so, we'll update the blog accordingly.



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Saturday, December 16, 2006

US-listed features

In fielding requests to feature more companies listed on US markets, it has become apparent that readers aren't aware that some of our Canadian-listed calls are also cross-listed in the US.


Energy Metals Corp. - EMC in Canada / EMU in the US.
+81% since our August call.

Minera Andes Inc. - MAI in Canada / MNEAF in the US.
+8% since our August call.

Adriana Resources Inc. - ADI in Canada / ANARF in the US.
+6% since our November call.


And US calls we favor.

PTCH +15% since our August call.

INFY +35% since our August call.

DCS +11% plus dividends since our August call.

WNR +22% since our August call.


We've had others too. AMD currently +10%, and FILE which was bought by IBM for a 12.5% gain for us, along with big board shorts CFC and MCK.



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Thursday, December 14, 2006

Long TRR & some good news.

We'll go long TRR, Trelawney Resources Inc. at $0.24 on the TSX Venture Exchange.

Simply, we like the chart and we like what we read of the company. The price has just pulled-back from all-time highs, which we hope makes for a good entry point. As with several of our plays, the gold trend will factor heavily and so far that trend remains very positive in our estimation.







Since our recent blog recap, a few of our stalwarts have run exceptionally well.

Altius hit an all-time high today, up 44% since our October call.







RDM Corp. spiked another 9% to hit a 6-year high today, currently up 146% for us since October.







DCS hit an all-time high on Monday, up 9% plus dividends in just over 4 months.





WNR after today's 4.3% jump sits just $1.10 below its all-time high, and is currently at a 25% gain for us since August.

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Sold PAIM

PAIM, Pearl Asian Mining did not work out for us. As written previously, and with our original caveats in mind, we are not holders at today's level suggesting apparent support is breached and thus have sold our shares to limit our loss to 10%.

Sunday, December 10, 2006

Long ABN (add), update : RC, PTCH, PAIM















The chart suggests an imminent break-out beyond key resistance, and we await what will hopefully be encouraging results from the activity detailed in these recent press releases :

Drilling Begins on Sims Lake Uranium Project in Labrador

Triex Minerals Begins 4000-Metre Drill Program on Mann Lake Uranium Project

Cameco Triples Budget for 2007 Exploration on their Mann Lake Property beside Consolidated Abaddon's Mann Lake project

We originally featured ABN at $0.50 in early August, and in anticipation of additional gains we add long ABN, Consolidated Abaddon Resources Inc. at $0.68 on the TSX Venture Exchange.


Updates :

RDM Corporation has appreciated rapidly, this past week rising another 15% to close at $3.77 which represents a 5-year high and a gain of 113% since our call in early October. We hold our shares and remain bullish.




Patch Energy was one of our few calls in the red until rocketing up 60% this past week to $1.43 thus joining the list of profitable calls. PTCH was featured in late August at $1.10 at which time we wrote "The chart suggests it'll coast just above $1 before making another upward move and a breakout over $1.50 would be extremely bullish, however if it breaks downward the support should be no lower than $0.50" Indeed, just two weeks later the stock hit an intra-day low of $0.55 before consolidating above $0.75 and now finally rising past the key $1.00 level and appreciating as we'd hoped for.




PAIM putters along in the same trading range it's been in since our call a month ago. We reiterate its highly speculative nature and while we feel in that light it is a good gamble, we remind readers to revisit our original caveats. We'd be quick to sell on a close below $0.001 however the longer it consolidates the greater we believe the chance of its rapid appreciation as is the nature of such plays if volume buying arrives. Should we be so lucky, we'll take the momentum profits once the volume seems to have run its course and the chart no longer supports holding shares. Of course we'll update readers in either case.

Monday, December 04, 2006

The story so far - a blog recap.

We don't feel our most comfortable when looking back as it strikes a complacent pose, however there have been repeated requests from readers for a recap of current positions and some indication of which calls still seem good entries to us.


The blog has been active since early August. So far we've played longs, shorts, and some precious metals. We cover securities trading on North American exchanges from the Pink Sheets to the TSE to the NYSE. There have been 48 calls made, of which 46 are still open.

- 79% of calls have been winners, for an average gain of 36%

- 1/4 of positions have gained more than 50%, two of which are up more than 100%

- only 10 calls are currently in the red, on average 16%

- two positions have been closed, for average gains of 39%

- equal money put into all of our calls, which is how we play them, has resulted in current gains of 27% in 4 months.


So far so good, but this is by no means an indication of future performance. We can only hope for continued good fortune and continue our work to that end.


For fresh entries, most of our more recent plays have yet to appreciate significantly and thus might be of greatest interest to new readers. We'd be comfortable taking additional positions in nearly all of our open calls, so it is simpler to list the companies we would not take fresh positions in currently :

Skor Foods, SKF
Aldershot Resources Ltd, ALZ
Bravo Venture Group, BVG
Southern Silver Explorations Corp, SSV
Fortune River Resource Corp, FRX
Nova Uranium Corp, NUC

All of these trade on the TSX Venture Exchange in Canada, and we reiterate these are our past calls in which we would not take positions at this time. Our lack of current enthusiasm is not a vote of non-confidence in the companies but rather an admission that these are not our best calls. The simple reason is that while the vast majority of our plays have appreciated dramatically in a short amount of time, these are down for us during bull markets and so from our perspective appear to be laggards. Not every play will be a winner, everyone surely knows.


In reading this blog and particularly this recap, please keep in mind that the usual caveats apply. We hold positions in the stocks we discuss. We make no "buy" or "sell" recommendations, this blog does not constitute investment advice, and our plays are generally risky and admittedly our success is more lucky than deserved.

We simply strive to buy stocks going up and to short stocks going down, at the most opportune entry levels we can discern, in the hope of future profits upon exit. This is simply a diary of our trading with a bit of commentary and the occasional interesting link for color, and we hope it is of some use and amusement to our readers.

Happy trading and great gains to all !

Friday, December 01, 2006

Long JIN



Per recent press releases :

"Jinshan is a Canadian mining company focused on the exploration and development of gold projects in Asia. The company is developing one of the largest gold mines in China - the CSH (217) Gold Project, where commercial production is expected to begin in the second quarter of 2007 - and conducting exploration work on other prospective properties in China."

"Jinshan Gold Mines Inc. is pleased to provide an update regarding activities at the Dadiangou Project in Gansu province, China. Crews are presently on site and a newly rehabilitated access road has now reached the property. Preparations are well underway for the planned 5,000-metre drill program to commence in January, 2007."

We like the recent TSE listing and news, plus the chart shows a steady up-trend and suggests an imminent break-out to highs not seen for nearly 3 years. Thus we go Long JIN, Jinshan Gold Mines at $1.54 on the Toronto Stock Exchange.