Riding The Gravy Train: September 2011

Riding The Gravy Train

Beating the market is fun and profitable. This is how we do it.

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

ZSL update, yet another.

On Monday afternoon we wrote of silver that "We won't chase these bounces, given they are not usually of material height or duration. However if this one is, we'll be looking to buy our half-sale of ZSL back somewhere below $15."

We received correspondence today about this. Yes, we did buy back some ZSL below $15 and yes it is already over 15% higher only a day later, and finally yes we did book a profit on some of that repurchased position today and may do so on the rest of it tomorrow, thus getting back to 1/2 the original holding.

We do not have an interest in diarizing intra-day trades, nor do we believe readers of this blog have an interest in reading same, thus will not post when we make that move. We will post, after market hours as is our style, before we sell out the rest of the original position. Diarized entries we'll always post the result of, if and when we close the position. Entries suggested as general commentary we will not necessarily update even if we take positions.

We're pleased that some readers are doing so well shorting silver and have written to thank us for the idea, however the credit for the move is all yours as is the onus to act independently of anything we do or write.

We've been asked why we hold only half the silver short now, if we feel certain silver will go much lower? We're just being prudent, as the half-sale at Monday's open will attest. Also we're short gold, too.




We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the stocks we do, or for mentioning any stocks or companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only and not to be taken seriously in any way. Thank you.  To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated, not if a blog entry only contains general commentary.

Monday, September 26, 2011

ZSL update and silver shorting strategy going forward.

Corrected the scoring on the ZSL half-sale in the original posting below. +62% not the +40% expected. How sweet it is.

Lovely seeing the panic selling in Europe this morning, with silver falling another 15-odd percent before bouncing a bit today. We won't chase these bounces, given they are not usually of material height or duration. However if this one is, we'll be looking to buy our half-sale of ZSL back somewhere below $15.

We feel completely certain that the silver bull market is over for a very long time to come, and quite possibly gold has topped too. Please see the link in the posting immediately below for more.



We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the stocks we do, or for mentioning any stocks or companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated, not if a blog entry only contains general commentary.

Saturday, September 24, 2011

selling 1/2 ZSL +62%

At Friday's close ZSL was up 40% from our call. Not bad for 6 weeks, and another big winner this year. We'll now sell half the position, perhaps repurchasing that half-position later if silver makes a big bounce. [EDIT : On Monday's open when we affected our half-sale, ZSL was +62% from our call.]

Those who bought the ZSL options we mentioned were rewarded for their risk, up hundreds of percent. See the entry immediately below this one for that call. Also the options we mentioned for TNA were up as much as 80% later that week.

Regarding the August 8th blog entry, TBT has been a bit of a disaster so far. We said that we'd not be surprised to see it as low as $20 and if so we'd possibly buy more. We've been asked if we're buying more. The answer is "not yet", though if anyone has not bought any then now might be good time.

Why so? Bond shorters have been out in force for 2 years, and all have been crushed so short covering is no longer likely to add to buying pressure. All those calling for hyperinflation have been dead wrong, as we expected. Rather, the deflation we've long written about is entrenched but must end someday. However that day could still be years away.

The Fed's recent "Operation Twist" announcement seems to have resulted in 10-year bond rates going up, which is good for our short thesis. Irony? Possibly some Fed front-runners taking profits so the rise in bonds could well resume shortly especially if markets continue to drop. That'd be bad for our short.

However with so much bad news widely known and so many people frightened about global economic collapse, maybe this is the bottom for equities and interest rates. As of yet though, there are no such signals in place which is why we're in no hurry to add to a losing position - it could become a bigger loser as some do. Eventually though, we feel very confident that we'll come out ahead on it.





We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the stocks we do, or for mentioning any stocks or companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated, not if a blog entry only contains general commentary.