Riding The Gravy Train: December 2009

Riding The Gravy Train

Beating the market is fun and profitable. This is how we do it.

Friday, December 04, 2009

buying FXP, visual treats

Click this text for a short but fascinating photo journal of yet another hype-fuelled bubble/scam that has bit the dust, "Off the Deep End: A Look at the Decline of Dubai"

Speaking of hype-fuelled bubbles, we go long the ProShares UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ETF, FXP which closed the week at $7.46 This is essentially a levered short on the Chinese stock market and economy.

"ProShares UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (the Fund) seeks daily investment results that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (the Index). The Index consists of 25 of the largest and most liquid Chinese stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX). This free float-adjusted Index caps the weight of any of constituent stock at 10% to ensure broad representation of the Chinese economy. The Fund takes positions in securities and/or financial instruments that, in combination, should have similar daily return characteristics as –200% of the daily return of the Index. The Index is a price return index. The Fund’s investment advisor is ProShare Advisors LLC."

Its downtrend does not yet appear to be over, from a technical perspective, so in case it drops significantly we're planning to add to our holdings rather than stop out. Our thinking may change on that, but for now we feel increasingly certain that a turn in the global markets is imminent.


More photo journals, these of Chinese pollution :

Click

Click

Click




Lightening up a little, some fine video entertainment !






We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the stocks we do, or for mentioning any stocks or companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact.

This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated, not if a blog entry only contains general commentary.

Gold & ASX chart updates

These charts can be clicked to view a larger version.

An updated gold chart, with the obvious trend lines marked and a possible Elliot Wave count numbered. The blue arrow at top shows the probable path, which is back to roughly the $1000 level as a sub-wave "iv" down before a possible final "5 of 5" wave up which, in Elliot terms, we believe would end the current gold rally cycle for at least several months if not years.

This is an admittedly very unpopular view, which is why we give it consideration since the charts seem to be making that prediction which we, in turn, are observing and bringing to the attention of readers :




A close-up of the current chart, for clarity :



Of course today's action could merely mark another blip downwards during a longer wave that reaches much higher, however it must be noted that we have made a "lower low" in technical terms which does suggest this current trend, marked as "iii" in the above charts, is over.

So says our technical theory. We'll soon see what reality dictates.


Here is an updated chart of Alberta Star Development Corp, ASX, with technicals clearly marked. The stock rallied exactly where we expected, through the lower red line which marked resistance and now marks support around $0.19

If bids can clear the upper red line we should continue to do well with this recent purchase :





We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the stocks we do, or for mentioning any stocks or companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact.

This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated, not if a blog entry only contains general commentary.

UUP updated chart

We update the chart of UUP, which was first presented here.

Click on the chart for a larger view, in which we see trends so obvious as to not warrant commentary other than to say a reversal will not be in effect until the ETF is consistently enjoying bids above $23.




It is interesting to note that for the first time in a very long time, the markets are not moving inverse to the US Dollar. Both the US Dollar and the markets are up significantly today, suggesting a potential bearish divergence. If so, the markets should be at a top of some significance and duration.

With the US Dollar rising, we also find gold dropping materially today (when measured in the usual US Dollars of course). This corresponds with the gold charts and targets we've posted recently.



We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the stocks we do, or for mentioning any stocks or companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact.

This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated, not if a blog entry only contains general commentary.

Bad Penny

Bad Penny - turn up like a bad penny. To arrive at a place or event where you are not wanted. "She'll turn up again, like a bad penny."

This site has been in limbo for a few days, with links severed and all graphics deleted, due to the efforts of some poor sports who do not appreciate unflattering, though proven accurate, analysis of their darling stock holdings.

The kind of expletive-laced diatribe we'd like to post to these persons wouldn't be in-line with the tone we have set over the few years this blog has been active, so instead we'll just say "we're back".




Thanks to those who wrote us, asking about the blog's status. If this blog does someday get shut down permanently, those on our mailing list will be advised of our subsequent location for we'll not be stopped so easily.

Also our thanks to Google, owner of Blogger, for doing the right thing and restoring this blog and our access to it. May we suggest not being so easily swayed by the bleating of bitter dumb sheeple the next time.

No thanks to those who send us comical threats and incoherent conspiracy theories centering around the belief that we are leaders of a secret evil naked short selling cabal. We wish. If somehow we could force stocks to their proper and fair valuation, we certainly would. Instead we'll have to wait for the markets to return to sanity just like everyone else. Soon come, hopefully. Until then, note that we have made the vast majority of profits on the long side in this blog.



Good Penny

On November 18 we posted this chart of EMX, a stock which we've held an unusually long time now :




Here is the updated chart, which we believe requires no comment :




Gold has been fast approaching our $1250 target, as a likely maximum for this cycle. It may stop short of that level of course.

This was the updated chart as of November 25 :



Today's chart would look the same, only with gold stretched $40 higher into the area of resistance indicated by the upper black and green trendlines.






We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the stocks we do, or for mentioning any stocks or companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact.

This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated, not if a blog entry only contains general commentary.