Bear Market
Ignore the nonsense that stock markets have already bounced back into a "technical bull market".
Ignore "experts" trying to shout "opportunity of a lifetime" louder than the next - particularly those who were screaming "imminent melt-up!" six weeks ago - and forget the irresponsible idiocy of projecting new all-time highs within a few months due to a "V-shaped recovery".
Miracles can happen, certainly. However miracles are not prudent to speculate on, or invest in.
Stocks were extremely overvalued in 2017 and 2018, so a return to share prices last seen in 2017 and 2018 - against a backdrop of a far worse and much more uncertain global economy - is not suddenly "value pricing" just as it wasn't value pricing back then.
The Fed is a false idol and always was. It can keep flailing via its make-it-up-as-you go policies but at best will only prolong what's necessary.
Bottom line: bullish sentiment remains sky-high and virtually everyone's looking to hold-on or to buy stocks.
There's been no sign of the capitulation typically seen at major bottoms.
Many haven't even seen their March account statements yet, or quarterly reports from the funds in which their life's savings are - or were - "invested".
Be patient.
COVID-19 is not the cause of the market plunge; it was simply the catalyst. Therefore we'll rely on the methods that had us levered short the market to an extreme and unprecedented degree before anyone heard of COVID-19, and we'll look for buy signals from those methods and not from declining COVID cases.
There will be massive rallies. There will be renewed hope doomed to be dashed. That's how bear markets work. The current bullish sentiment is evidence of that. Arguably so too in precious metals.
Again, be patient and go slow. Don't risk and lose the great gains made so far this year.
It's a long way down.
Ignore "experts" trying to shout "opportunity of a lifetime" louder than the next - particularly those who were screaming "imminent melt-up!" six weeks ago - and forget the irresponsible idiocy of projecting new all-time highs within a few months due to a "V-shaped recovery".
Miracles can happen, certainly. However miracles are not prudent to speculate on, or invest in.
Stocks were extremely overvalued in 2017 and 2018, so a return to share prices last seen in 2017 and 2018 - against a backdrop of a far worse and much more uncertain global economy - is not suddenly "value pricing" just as it wasn't value pricing back then.
The Fed is a false idol and always was. It can keep flailing via its make-it-up-as-you go policies but at best will only prolong what's necessary.
Bottom line: bullish sentiment remains sky-high and virtually everyone's looking to hold-on or to buy stocks.
There's been no sign of the capitulation typically seen at major bottoms.
Many haven't even seen their March account statements yet, or quarterly reports from the funds in which their life's savings are - or were - "invested".
Be patient.
COVID-19 is not the cause of the market plunge; it was simply the catalyst. Therefore we'll rely on the methods that had us levered short the market to an extreme and unprecedented degree before anyone heard of COVID-19, and we'll look for buy signals from those methods and not from declining COVID cases.
There will be massive rallies. There will be renewed hope doomed to be dashed. That's how bear markets work. The current bullish sentiment is evidence of that. Arguably so too in precious metals.
Again, be patient and go slow. Don't risk and lose the great gains made so far this year.
It's a long way down.
posted by C. Guinness @ 10:37 PM
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