ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT) Update

We diarized an initial entry in TBT in August of 2011, stating that we felt it could go much lower before a bottom.  Simply, TBT (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF) will go up as rates go up (specifically rates on 20+ Year Treasuries).

At the start of 2012 we wrote that "At some point in the future, perhaps in 2012, a long-term trend change in U.S. interest rates will happen and TBT will rocket. We've not added to our position as we fear it may [first] go much lower still. Those without a position may wish to speculate on an initial or partial entry at current prices." 

It was then at $72.  It did go "much lower still" in the first half of 2012, to $56.  It then bottomed and began the "long-term trend change" we'd predicted.

At the start of 2013, with TBT at $63, we stated that "we remain long-term bullish TBT."

In late May of this year, in a post titled "SJB, U.S. 30-Year Bonds, 10-Year Notes, TBT, Gold and Silver" we wrote: "... we're very confident of much higher rates, and the rates will turn higher much sooner than anyone expects and regardless of so-called Quantitative Easing efforts continuing or not."

That's exactly what has happened, and at the time we offered chart studies of TBT suggesting buying or adding if it started to close above $70

TBT closed today at $82.27 

Below is an updated chart study, showing the current uptrend with possible channel and overhead resistance not much higher.  In time we expect to see TBT above $100, but it won't be a steady uptrend and it won't likely be soon.

Last weekend we predicted the market would drop and the DJIA is now just over 400 points lower.  Keep those resistance levels in mind if you're a trader, and read also this update from a few days ago while watching for a short-term bounce.


Worth considering:

U.S. consumer confidence dips; housing starts miss forecasts

U.S. bond yields hit 2-year high; emerging currencies slide

Canadian Gov't Bonds also hit a 2-year high today. 







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