Updates - BMO, FSLR, CGP, SRS, VZ

Recently we shorted BMO, Bank of Montreal, and FSLR, First Solar. Today alone First Solar dropped over 16% despite a very strong market, due to the company's poor earnings announcement. We featured charts depicting our techincal view of these stocks and we've been asked to update these charts.



FSLR 3-Year Chart

On the longer-term view above we see the rising trends in green and the downtrend in red.

On the 2-year close-up below we detail the possible emerging "head and shoulders" formation.

FSLR 2-Year Chart

Note the performance since May of this year, despite markets generally rallying nonstop. This stock appears to wish to continue to go down and we believe it will do so, finally reaching levels far lower than any current bull will accept. We would not be surprised to see it trading below $60 in due time, but first the lower green uptrend must be broken and so too the psychologically significant $100 level which is clearly seen to be significant on the chart above.

Of course it's possible that the stock will rally to new highs despite deteriorating fundamentals and increasing competition, as well as world governments increasingly going broke and possibly no longer being able to artificially prop-up this industry.

We hold in the belief that FSLR will soon make new lows however we note that this stock normally reverses to close large overnight gaps in price and that it is currently approaching an oversold level in the short term, so to be safe we'll lower our stop by $20 from $181 to $161 on an intra-day basis thus risking less than a 5% loss should this trade reverse and go against us dramatically. Currently we enjoy a roughly 18% "paper profit" in just a matter of days.



BMO 10-Year Chart

BMO broke down just where we predicted. In the longer view above, we note historical major support & resistance in red.

In the next chart we see the breakdown below the green rising trend. For now we leave our original stop intact at $52.50 representing a roughly 5% loss if triggered.


BMO 3-Year Chart



VZ 25-Year Chart

Above on the 25-year chart of Verizon we see the obvious major trends marked accordingly in red and green. We note also the amount of time the stock has spent between the $20 and $40 levels, staying relatively stable despite very tumultuous markets in the course of that long time.


VZ 2-Year Chart



On the 2-year chart above we see a very well-defined pattern at the end of which the stock should see a major break in one direction or the other. If anything, it looks to be on its way down in the longer term and it faces increasing competition. However we hope for the best, holding long and continue to sell covered calls and enjoy dividends as detailed in this link.



On SRS, the ProShares UltraShort Real Estate ETF, we raise our intra-day stop to $8.95 thus reducing our risk from 12% to under 7%. Its chart as it pertains to this trade is so uninteresting that we don't bother to create one for inclusion here. We enjoyed gains as high as 15% at yesterday's levels, but we're holding on until we may realize much higher profits or we are stopped out.



On the CGP chart below we postulate two possible current uptrends. We already enjoy gains of over 60% from our entry just days ago, and the conservative speculator will have exited already on at least half holdings, or will exit below the upper trendline to secure profits.

We are more aggressive thus continue to hold above the lower trend line, and will be stopping out on any close below $0.10

CGP Chart






We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the stocks we do, or for mentioning any stocks or companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact.

This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

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