Trailing 12-Month Recap

Going forward we endeavor to post a monthly recap of trades diarized within this blog over the trailing 12 months, along with select bits of commentary now that enough time has passed to judge the accuracy which we will leave to readers to decide.



30 positions initiated or closed in the past 12 months :

5 of which are still open, 3 of which are currently profitable, with an average gain of less than 1% over an average holding period of slightly over 2 months.

25 of which have been closed, none of which were losers, for an average gain of 29% over an average holding period of 4.75 months which calculates to a hypothetical 73% annualized return.

We'll post a trailing 2-year recap in coming weeks.



The list & commentary :


ZSL short at $11.65 currently $13.38 , +15% in 1 week. This position remains open.

MSFT +11% profit in 7 days.

March 9, 2009 - "The markets appear to be putting in a bottom. Not "the" bottom, but at least "a" bottom of some duration we believe."

AAPL shorted at $99.50 writing "A better short entry would be in the $105-$107 range, but rather than wait we enter presently." Stock is currently at $118.45 , -16% in 2.5 weeks. This position remains open.

SU sold at break-even after holding just over 2 months.

February 23, 2009 - "We sleep well with effective shorts in place, believing the markets will be much lower within months if not imminently."

NOV +31% in 3 months.

January 29, 2009 - "The markets could go either way, but appear to us to wish to go downwards."

GLD short at $86.23 currently at $85.27 , +1% in 2.5 months. This position remains open.

MGA +44% in 2 weeks.

DRI shorted at $28.18 currently $35.83 , -21% in 3 months. This position remains open.

GCI +24% in 3 days.

BTU bought at $24.51 , sold two sets of covered calls to reduce the effective cost to $20.46 Stock was last at $27.67 Profit will be 47% if called away at $30 by April expiry. Actual gain presently if unwinding the position would be 24% in 4.5 months. This position remains open.

BUD +6% in 6 weeks on the stock.

BUD +100% in 6 weeks on sold puts.

JAS +24% in 1 month.

PWE +26% in 1 day.

October 13, 2008 - "We feel certain that markets and most stocks will be much lower by this time next year and perhaps even early next year if not sooner."

MCK +15% in 2 years.

October 2, 2008 - "How low can we go? Much lower, and so we shall go."

CBRL +19% in under 7 weeks.

September 2008 - "Those following television personalities and stock pickers who can only succeed in raging bull markets will lose even more than they have recently - indeed very much more - if they persist in their market activity or come too late to the shorting table.

We will not be fooled into the idea that these markets offer "investment opportunities" or "value".

We believe the general markets will be much lower in the coming months if not weeks or days."

VAR +13% in 6 weeks.

August 2008 - "we do not wish to be late in replenishing shorts as we believe a new and severe downturn in the markets will begin soon."

CAKE +17% in 1 month.

DUG +5% in 2 months.

XLY +16% in 5 months.

SPG +17% in 2.5 months.

July 2008 - "In the case of SPG, we feel it will go much lower."

RATE +11% in 9 months.

June 2008 - "We cover our short in RATE [though we] believe the stock remains extremely overvalued."

ERTS +15% in 15 months.

GOOG +2% in 2 months.

June 2008 - "On May 7 GOOG was as high as $600 but it closed today below $529. Those who waited until the higher levels we suggested for more conservative short entries in the stock have done very well. We remain of the belief the stock is overvalued and due to fall lower [...] Our outlook remains unchanged. Bearish the general markets, bullish gold and silver, expecting a coming deflation in the pricing of nearly everything else.

Expect more big-brokerage "sell" ratings on obviously doomed companies far too late as the bear market nears its bottom, at much lower levels we believe.

We'd personally been shorters of GM for years, and remain so with personal holdings outside of the trades we diarize herein. We mention this because as seen during the last market crash, earlier this decade, it was very rare to see any "sell" ratings on major stocks and those "sell" ratings didn't emerge until far too late, as is the case now with this "sell" rating on GM.

It is nothing short of comical that the company had not been rated a "strong sell" a long time ago."

SYX +13% in 1 month.

HPS.a +200% in 20 months.

LEH +31% in 1 month.

AXL +28% in 4 months.

June 2008 - "We cover our Lehman Brothers, LEH, short as well as our short on American Axle, AXL. We expect both to be a great deal lower in coming months, however that'd be on the condition of severe general market declines which we are also expecting. If we're correct in that regard, then we have remaining shorts on which we can book profits at that time."

May 2008 - "While the DJIA has recently tentatively breached 13000, we continue to see significant resistance above that level thus we have not turned away from our bearish stance and today's market slide bolsters our view, if perhaps temporarily. Nonetheless we proceed with caution since we continue to believe that the general markets, commodities, and the majority of individual stocks are considerably overvalued and overbought at present."

CDU +11% in 14 months.

CVT +42% in 5 months.




We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the stocks we do, or mentioning them in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact, otherwise we generally buy and sell as diarized here. This blog itself is merely a diarizing of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

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