Quick points in light of recent chaos in the markets.

Let us tune out the market noise and bleating of sheeple, rather focusing on what consistently works.


On Monday evening, near the recent bottom of the markets we wrote :

"There may be massive rallies, perhaps starting tomorrow, perhaps on futher meddling by the so-called authorities. Certainly sparking a market rally is their main concern at the present time. We cannot blame them for trying to cover-up, however history both long past and relatively present teaches us that this meddling only makes things worse.

We hold other shorts in order to profit further should markets continue to drop, and should markets rally significantly we will reload at least some shorts we have recently covered for generous gains."

1. The markets closed slightly lower this week than last week, despite the massive gains witnessed the past two days.

2. Adieu "free markets". Bail-outs, random meddling, and outrageous restrictions on short selling hamper the efficiency of markets. Who will buy when there's a selling panic, if not shorts seeking to cover? We may find out soon enough.

3. We enjoy the good fortune of remarkable accuracy in our forecasts and continue to adhere to our plan.

4. If any reader is aware of an outlet for market commentary/forecasts and actionable trade ideas that enjoys a greater degree of accuracy at any price please let us know. We'd like to subscribe to it.


By request we have recently begun to review trades from the past. We posted the review for August 2006 last weekend, and since we diarized no trades in September 2006, will we skip ahead to review October 2006, perhaps as early as this weekend.

Until then, here's a sneak peek :

We posted 16 trades that month. All were subsequently closed, roughly within 6 months. Average profit was 63% implying an annualized gain of 126%.

Best of all, in hindsight we see that we sold these at virtually their highs, and almost all are far lower now.

Only 2 trades were losers, for an average success rate of 88%. The average loss was just 2%.


This is no attempt to pat ourselves on the back. Rather, we are counting our blessings and bringing into focus that with reasonable foresight and prudent trading anyone can come out ahead in these markets.

It is important to find consistency and exploit it to profit among the market chaos.


In 2008 we entered 21 trades thus far per this blog, some long and some short. Most have already been closed at a profit. Of those that remain open which we entered in 2008, 6 are losers thus far however all but one of those was labelled as "highly speculative" while 2 are roughly at break-even levels and 2 are in the black.

That's a success rate of 63% overall, despite markets that have plunged to nearly historical degrees. That's without counting our very accurate calls & timing on market direction and government intervention. Also bear in mind that none of these trades involved "day trading" or required quick action.

We remain calm and consistent winners while others panic and lose. A key trait for success.


Thus far in 2008 we've closed 23 positions (including positions entered prior to this year 2008), all winners both long and short, for an average 29% gain on an average holding period of just over 6 months which implies an annualized gain of 58%

The pattern is clear that whether it be with highly speculative penny stock longs in the booming resource market of late '06 and early '07, effectively shorting oil near its 2008 highs, or going short blue-chip financials during a "credit crunch" and savage bear market, we have the good fortune to enjoy a remarkable consistency irrespective of the general market direction or the sector in which we speculate. That has been, and it remains our primary goal.



We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the stocks we do, or mentioning them in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact, otherwise we generally buy and sell as diarized here. This blog itself is merely a diarizing of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult your broker or investment advisor before making any investing decisions.

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Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor have we ever sent anything other than update notices for this blog to our mailing list. We only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized, not if an update only contains general market commentary.