Riding The Gravy Train: February 2017

Riding The Gravy Train

Beating the market is fun and profitable. This is how we do it.

Tuesday, February 28, 2017

Updates: HXD, NUGT, VXX, TZA, Oil, UCO, OKS, ETP, WPZ, NS

 
Our HXD, the Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX 60 Bear ETF, order remains open

The first half of NUGT, Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 3x Shares ETF, was sold for a gain of 75% in about a month, and the 2nd half was stopped out yesterday for a gain of 65%. 

Not bad, especially after enjoying gains of up to 450% last year on NUGT

We believe gold, and NUGT, will go much higher, and we maintain long exposure to precious metals not diarized herein. 

We're lowering our buy stop levels on VXX, the iPath® S&P 500 VIX ST Futures™ ETN, and TZA, the Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3x Shares ETF, to $19.10 and $18.60 respectively. 

Oil is looking to us like it'll have another leg higher, against pervasive bearish sentiment. 

Our last UCO, the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF, stop increase was back in OctoberCrude Oil made it as low as $45.18 and is now at $54.  Above $54 it looks good, and above $56 it looks great on a technical basis. 

We'll raise our stop and keep holding UCO as long as crude oil is trading above $50. 

We're up over 21% on our current UCO position, after also scoring over 100% on UCO and over 75% on OKS last year

We bought ETP, Energy Transfer Partners LP, about 15 months ago and since then it's up 9% for us while we've also pocketed a fat dividend of over 12% along the way. 

We'll place a stop on ETP at $34.90 

We announced buying WPZ, Williams Partners LP, also 15 months ago.  It's up 38% since then, while additionally paying us a high dividend of almost 12% during that time. 

We're now setting a stop on WPZ at $38.80

In late 2015 we also bought NS, NuStar Energy LP, (also see links above).  It's up 60% since then and has paid over 12% dividends on top in the meantime. 

We're now placing a stop on NS at $50.90 



 
 
 
 
 


We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, me, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.


Tuesday, February 21, 2017

VIX, Volatility, VXX and the Market Melt-Up

 
On February 15 Volatility Sentiment had dropped to just 5%

The last time it hit such a level of near-total complacency was just before the 15% market plunge which began in July of 2015.

As of early February 2017 the Investment Intelligence Advisors' Survey had registered a bullish percentage that shows the highest level of optimism in 30 years. 

The last time this reading was higher was in 1987 a few months before the major market crash that year.

Since early February of 2016 there have only been three days we'd call "material down days" (200 points or more drop in the DJIA), and two of those days were in succession back in June which were immediately reversed.

The last such day was in early September, over 5 months ago, and the DJIA is almost 2700 points (15%) higher since then.

Here's a look at the Shiller 10-year price/earnings ratio as of late January 2017.  The implications are self-evident and ominous.



Against this background of bullish mania and lack of caution we find the VIX flat over the past three weeks despite major indexes rocketing higher.

Today we see VXX breaking a down trend stretching back to early November.





 
 
 
 
 


We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, me, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.


Considering Cocoa Cycles

 
On the cocoa chart below the vertical black lines are spaced three years apart. 



Percentage changes from the previous price extreme are detailed, and at bottom the many times when COT showed a similar setup to current conditions are marked by purple ovals. 

We expect to soon enter long positions related to cocoa



 
 
 
 
 


We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, me, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.


Thursday, February 16, 2017

RJA Breaks 6-Year Downtrend, NUGT Stop Raised

 
RJA has broken a 6-year down trend, and our RJA entry should be triggered soon. 
 


We're raising our stop on NUGT up to $9.90

We'll raise it again if it pushes to new highs for the year. 
 
 
 
 
 
 


We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, me, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.


Wednesday, February 15, 2017

Cocoa; NIB, CHOC

 
Cocoa doesn't spend much time below $2000.



We like NIB which closed today at $23.45, and CHOC which closed at $28.77

We'll hold these without a stop, and may hold these for months or even 2-3 years by which time cocoa is likely to be back above at least $2500 per the history shown in the chart above. 

We'll gladly add to our positions should cocoa go much lower or stay below $2000 for an extended period. 


 
 
 
 


We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, me, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.


Wednesday, February 08, 2017

Market Update, NUGT, VXX, TZA, HXD, SJB, TBT

 
"There are two kinds of people in life; the doer and the loser.  Which one are you?" - Tom Vu

Prudent persons are preparing for a lasting downturn globally in equities. 

We've recently recommended decreasing long holdings via tight stops. 

Holdings that speculate on raw materials - particularly graphite, lithium, uranium, rare earths, etc. - would be exceptions.  So too positions that are effective shorts on treasuries and junk bonds, or that effectively hedge against the U.S. dollar. 

To hedge or speculate on a market drop, we suggest VXX above $19.50 and TZA above $20.00 with full awareness of the particulars and risks of inverse levered instruments. 

If entered, responsible sell stops would then be placed $1 below whatever the low of 2017 is at the time of entry. 

We still have an open buy-stop order on HXD.


NUGT is up 107% since our December recommendation. 

We still have half our position, per the partial sale two weeks ago, and we're raising the stop to $10.40 


 
 
 
 
 


We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, me, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.

To be notified when this blog is updated :
Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a posting only contains general commentary.

This publication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is made available on an "as is" basis. RidingTheGravyTrain (RtGT) does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. The material is proprietary and without prior written permission from RtGT it may not be reproduced, copied, modified, performed, published, distributed or broadcast, in whole or in part, in any form, other than for your own personal, non-commercial use.

Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Nothing in these pages constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice.

RtGT is not an investment advisor. The general opinions and information contained herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional concerning your own situation and any specific investment questions you may have. RtGT cannot guarantee the future performance of any investment.