Weekly Market Outlook

So far our weekly market outlook, a feature begun earlier this month, has proven accurate.

Today we offer a review and an updated outlook.


In our initial forecast, on August 10,  we wrote:

"We're today starting a feature which we'll call 'Weekly Market Outlook'.

Each weekend, more or less, we'll post what our outlook for U.S. equities is for the coming week(s).  This will be based purely on a statistical & technical trading system we've developed, the particulars of which we will not reveal at this time.

We'll offer no assurances.  It's worked quite well for us the past few years and perhaps it'll be of some use to our readers.

Our immediate outlook is bearish. [...] If you're short and the market is dropping, expect support circa 15300 and 15150.  On a big plunge there'd be support around 14900.  In other words, these would the levels at which to consider covering shorts."

As we now know, the DJIA's high was just a few days prior to that statement and it subsequently plunged to tally its worst month since May 2012.  The 15300 and 15150 levels did provide minor support on the market's trip down to 14810 to close the month.

A note for those who have asked, we still hold AMAVF with our stop currently set at $98.


In our second installment, we showed the following chart and warned of a possible bounce while stating: "The DJIA uptrend since November remains intact, but it should not hold for long.  We'll remain bearish in the coming week."

 

Of course the market went lower as we'd expected, and here's an ominous update of that chart:

As predicted, before the market continued lower there was a small bounce and when we posted our third installment the DJIA was at 14962 when we wrote:  "There 'should' be a bigger bounce, but if not then the market could easily drop another 200-400 points before catching a solid bid."

The bigger bounce still eludes us, as the DJIA only went about 100 points higher before dropping to the month's lows today of 14762 which is exactly 200 points lower from last week's update.

We also posted a mid-week update Tuesday morning, stating: "Support on Tuesday should be found between 14800-14900 in the DJIA, or within the broad range between 14550-14750 in the event of a more material drop." 

The DJIA spent the rest of the week essentially between 14800-14900:

Markets are closed Monday per the Labor Day holiday in North America, and we remain longer-term bearish while still expecting a near-term bounce.  That bounce 'should' begin Tuesday, but the market could certainly drop lower first.  We'd expect that drop not to be more than another 200 points or so, should it occur.  An obvious wildcard is possible U.S. armed attacks in Syria.

We would not turn longer-term bullish unless the DJIA is closing above the red trend line shown in the 1-year chart above.  We expect September to be another down month.

As such, while we are up roughly 8% on our most recent market shorts from late July, we've kept those and previous market short positions open but might cover the latest entries if the market plunges further on Tuesday.


Worth noting is that we also closed the majority of our gold and silver speculations on Tuesday, which proved to be at the exact highs (so far?).  We booked massive gains and retain some long positions effectively free of cost. 

We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.


To be notified when this blog is updated : Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a blog entry only contains general commentary.

Buying Coast Wholesale Appliances Inc. (CWA), Market Update, Gold and Silver Update

Coast Wholesale Appliances Inc. trades in Canada on the Toronto Stock Exchange, and is currently paying a 9% dividend. 

Equally compelling to us is that a long-term downtrend appears to be broken. 

Here's the long view:

If the stock closes below the red 4-year uptrend, we'd be worried.  Currently that trend line is around $2.50  A possible resistance trend is shown in black, currently around $4.65 

The breaking of the green line is our "go" signal, so we're buying CWA. 

Admittedly this is a bit ironic given the news we linked to Monday about weak U.S. durable goods data, and it's no different in Canada.  We expect consumer demand to continue to wane, and that'd be just one of so many reasons why this or any consumer goods stock could drop.  We can't know what will happen in the future, however we do know that currently the dividend is fat and the technical setup looks great. 

Here's a closer view of that technical setup:

Market Update: Holiday weeks often end to the upside. Support on Tuesday should be found between 14800-14900 in the DJIA, or within the broad range between 14550-14750 in the event of a more material drop.

Gold and Silver Update: We had been accurately and profitably bearish gold and silver, particularly earlier this year, while virtually everyone else was rabidly bullish. Then while the world was selling in panic in mid-late June, we were virtually alone in turning temporarily bullish on gold and silver for the first time in two years. 

We posted a few times in that time period that we were loading up on AGQ (levered silver ETF) and GDX (gold miners) calls.  Those calls are now up many hundreds of percent, and we're booking most of those profits while keeping just a few calls longer-term which are now effectively cost-free. 







We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.


To be notified when this blog is updated : Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a blog entry only contains general commentary.

Terra Tech Corp. (TRTC)

Terra Tech Corp. is, in part, a play on the growing trend in Marijuana legalization.  Read more here.

Simple concept, simple chart:

The run from November to February was based on the legalization votes in Washington and Colorado, and the subsequent downtrend now appears to be broken.

To us a reasonable speculation seems to be to buy over $0.10 and hold over $0.05, which is roughly the year's lows.  Better for these types of issues priced so cheaply is to forgo a stop level and instead consider it as you would an options contract, with risk of 100% loss, the difference here being that there's no contract expiry.

We hold existing shares at an average cost of $0.09  which has not been diarized in this blog. 


News:  Weak U.S. durable goods data dims growth outlook






We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.


To be notified when this blog is updated : Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a blog entry only contains general commentary.

Sirona Biochem (SBM)

Sirona Biochem, trading in Canada under ticker SBM, is worth a look for technical reasons illustrated in the charts below. 

First the long-term view, in which we see a 2-year downtrend apparently broken (green line) and the current price challenging a level it has not closed above since September 2011 ($0.15) :

Here's a closer look:

Along with the technical picture, some will find this news compelling: Sirona Biochem Signs LOI with China’s #1 Ranked Anti-Diabetic Company, Wanbang Pharma 

To us it seems a good speculation, holding above $0.09 for the time being.  We'd be especially bullish on closes above $0.15 

We hold shares at a cost of $0.11, a position not previously diarized in this blog.


Turning to the overall market, almost two weeks ago, with the DJIA at 15423, we wrote: "Our immediate outlook is bearish [...] On a big plunge there'd be support around 14900."

Wednesday the DJIA closed at 14896, and Thursday there was a weak bounce to 14963.  There "should" be a bigger bounce, but if not then the market could easily drop another 200-400 points before catching a solid bid. 

This article might interest some readers: Dangerous divergences unseen since 2007








We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.


To be notified when this blog is updated : Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a blog entry only contains general commentary.

ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT) Update

We diarized an initial entry in TBT in August of 2011, stating that we felt it could go much lower before a bottom.  Simply, TBT (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF) will go up as rates go up (specifically rates on 20+ Year Treasuries).

At the start of 2012 we wrote that "At some point in the future, perhaps in 2012, a long-term trend change in U.S. interest rates will happen and TBT will rocket. We've not added to our position as we fear it may [first] go much lower still. Those without a position may wish to speculate on an initial or partial entry at current prices." 

It was then at $72.  It did go "much lower still" in the first half of 2012, to $56.  It then bottomed and began the "long-term trend change" we'd predicted.

At the start of 2013, with TBT at $63, we stated that "we remain long-term bullish TBT."

In late May of this year, in a post titled "SJB, U.S. 30-Year Bonds, 10-Year Notes, TBT, Gold and Silver" we wrote: "... we're very confident of much higher rates, and the rates will turn higher much sooner than anyone expects and regardless of so-called Quantitative Easing efforts continuing or not."

That's exactly what has happened, and at the time we offered chart studies of TBT suggesting buying or adding if it started to close above $70

TBT closed today at $82.27 

Below is an updated chart study, showing the current uptrend with possible channel and overhead resistance not much higher.  In time we expect to see TBT above $100, but it won't be a steady uptrend and it won't likely be soon.

Last weekend we predicted the market would drop and the DJIA is now just over 400 points lower.  Keep those resistance levels in mind if you're a trader, and read also this update from a few days ago while watching for a short-term bounce.


Worth considering:

U.S. consumer confidence dips; housing starts miss forecasts

U.S. bond yields hit 2-year high; emerging currencies slide

Canadian Gov't Bonds also hit a 2-year high today. 







We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.


To be notified when this blog is updated : Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a blog entry only contains general commentary.

Best Buy (BBY) Chart Study, Many Losing Faith In Gold

Today we offer two views, long and short-term, of BBY. 

A drop of 1/3 or more, to at least $20, is likely.  If shorting, then covering above the 7-year downtrend would be prudent to limit risk.

We last wrote about BBY here, in a post which may offer other worthwhile ideas for those interested in short selling. 


Interesting Articles:

The Real Cost of Owning Gold

From Vancouver to Ghana, people are losing faith in gold

We've insisted for a few years, counter to popular myth, that the Average Joe had already gone "all in" on gold.  Quotes from the article above:

"'We’re holding trash bags,' said Philip Mann, 53, who with his wife put about US$160,000, half their retirement savings, into gold and silver coins starting in 2009. They’re now worth at least 40% less, including sales mark-ups, he said. The drop forced him to cash out a 401(k) retirement plan..."

"Some 2,273 U.S.-based mutual funds have an exposure to gold bullion, mining or exploration, according to the Chicago research firm. Amid the frenzy, gold advocates made dramatic predictions that the precious metal would be the only way to protect wealth. The boom rippled out to as many as 60 million people around the world ..."

Note the galling hubris at the top among so-called experts, always a sign of imminent failure: "John Paulson, the New York hedge fund manager noted for making US$15-billion with a bet against the U.S. housing market in 2007, told investors in February 2012 that gold would be his next triumph. His gold fund lost 59% through July this year..."

Hedge funds lose faith in gold


Keep in mind our chart showing the progression of the psychology of gold & silver investors through the Seven Stages Of Grief, which is clearly reflected in the above articles.   It has proven accurate and predictive since we introduced it almost two years ago:

We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.


To be notified when this blog is updated : Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a blog entry only contains general commentary.

Pinetree Capital LTD (PNP) Chart Study, Weekly Market Outlook (DJIA)

 

Today we offer two views of PNP (Pinetree Capital):

 

 

The above charts are as of Wednesday's close.  On Thursday, the stock popped 21% higher on this news of a claimed net asset value of $0.79 

 

On a technical level, it's most compelling on consistent closes above $0.50 

 

In July and August it bottomed at $0.30 a few times, so we'd be selling on dips below that level.

 

 

 

Last Saturday we wrote: "Our immediate outlook is bearish [...] If you're short and the market is dropping, expect support circa 15300 and 15150.  On a big plunge there'd be support around 14900.  In other words, these would the levels at which to consider covering shorts."

Here's a look at the past few day's trading.  Wednesday's low was 15316.

If you're short, here's another reason to beware a bounce:

The DJIA uptrend since November remains intact, as seen above, but it should not hold for long. 

We'll remain bearish in the coming week.



Commentary: The average investor is terrible at timing the market

"By Brett Arends

The myth that this is an “unloved” bull market is just that — a myth.

Data shows that the ordinary retail public — Mom and Pop — are back on Wall Street, and how! According to the Investment Company Institute, the Great American Public has poured $92 billion into the stock market via stock mutual funds since the start of the year.

To put that in context, in the first seven months of last year — when the market was much lower — they withdrew $180 billion.

The last time the investing public jumped into the Wall Street pool with both feet like this was in 2007. And they are investing even more this time around. In the first seven months of 2007 they invested $85 billion into stock funds.

 

Over the years, you could have made a fortune just by buying stocks when Mom and Pop sold them and selling when they were buying. And they are buying, heavily, right now."

Read the full article via the link above. 









We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.


To be notified when this blog is updated : Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a blog entry only contains general commentary.

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) Chart Study, Paulson & Co. Cuts Gold Stake

Today we present another triangle pattern worth keeping an eye on, this time in CAT.

First the long-term view for perspective:

And the close-up:

Above the green line, especially on continued closes above $100, we'd be bullish.  Below the red line, especially on continued closes below $80, we'd be bearish. 



From the "better late than never" department, we have news that Paulson & Co. cuts SPDR Gold Trust stake. 

Will this prove to be as terrible as Paulson's timing in buying and holding?  We were critical of the buying and holding, but in time the selling will probably prove wise especially since the buying volume during a bounce or rally is what's required to easily reduce such massive stakes as theirs.


Article: Why you should worry about a 1987-style crash

We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.


To be notified when this blog is updated : Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a blog entry only contains general commentary.

USA Graphite Inc. (USGT) Chart Study

Looking at a long-term chart of USA Graphite Inc., we see a consolidation during most of this year that may soon break upward:

It could also break downward, and whichever way it goes it's extremely rare for a penny stock to exhibit this type of pattern - a run-up after it starts trading, then a tank of over 90% on massive volume - and then go on to glory. 

Most penny stocks never go on to glory in any case, so while we offer no opinion or judgement on the company itself, we're of the belief that if it does break upward out of this sideways pattern it'll be a short-term rally we'd prefer to sell into. 

A close-up of the consolidation, shown in red in the chart above, appears in the chart below:   

We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.


To be notified when this blog is updated : Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a blog entry only contains general commentary.

Shorting Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR)

GMCR was at the center of controversy and the target of much short selling almost two years ago.  You can read about that here and peruse the actual presentation here.

It tanked spectacularly since then, and has rebounded almost all the way back.  It looks like a good technical short to us now:

What's not shown on the chart above is that the MACD in the weekly time frame has recently turned bearish for the first time since that year-long bounce began from under $30. 

We're going short GMCR and will cover on any close above the 2013 intra-day high of $83, roughly 6% higher than the current close of $78.60

To us it seems a good probability that the stock will decline to $60, or over 20% lower.  An eventual drop far lower would not surprise us at all.  Time will tell.

We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.


To be notified when this blog is updated : Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a blog entry only contains general commentary.

Gold, Silver and U.S. Dollar Charts Updated

Today we present charts of the U.S. dollar, gold and silver with the obvious trend lines shown.

As always, charts can be clicked to view a larger version.

In the U.S. dollar chart above, we see a nearly two-year uptrend in danger of being broken.

Contrary to popular belief, gold and the dollar do not always correlate.  For example, over the past six years it's tough to find any consistent correlation.  See for yourself by comparing the dollar chart above with the chart of gold below for the same time period. 

When looking at the near-term chart of gold below we see that gold might also break a trend line, so we believe that a move higher in gold out of the downward channel its been in the past year will probably coincide with a break downward in the dollar.

The silver chart suggests an upward break.  That's encouraging for those who, like us, are currently bullish on precious metals in the short term, however it doesn't mean much without a confirming move higher in gold.

A month ago, we posted this commentary and an update of the "GLD gaps chart".

Back then, we predicted that "GLD will approach $130 or at least rise to meet the downtrend in the next week or two."

Roughly two weeks later, GLD did hit $130 and it's now at that downtrend (shown in red) as seen in this updated version of the GLD gaps chart:

Should there be a sustained move higher in gold, expect GLD to reach the resistance area between roughly $142 and $150.

We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.


To be notified when this blog is updated : Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a blog entry only contains general commentary.

Arcam AB (AMAVF) Chart Study, Weekly Market Outlook

Below is the chart of Arcam AB, ticker AMAVF:

This stock has enjoyed the benefit of 3D Printing hype in 2013, but has a lot more going for it than most of the companies widely touted in that sector in that it has products, clients, sales, revenues and even profits. 

Probably it's due for a correction, and certainly the trend lines on the chart suggest so.

We've been long since it broke through $50 earlier this year (not diarized on this site) and have a very tight stop now on most of the shares.  At this point, it looks a more tempting short than hold, and were we looking to go long - or to repurchase shares that might get sold - we'd look to do it below $70 and closer to $60.


Notes:

We'll post updated gold and silver charts and commentary over the weekend.

We're today starting a feature which we'll call "Weekly Market Outlook". 

Each weekend, more or less, we'll post what our outlook for U.S. equities is for the coming week(s).  This will be based purely on a statistical & technical trading system we've developed, the particulars of which we will not reveal at this time.

We'll offer no assurances.  It's worked quite well for us the past few years and perhaps it'll be of some use to our readers.

Our immediate outlook is bearish, and for the coming week that outlook would be rescinded only  if the DJIA closes over 15660. 

If you're short and the market is dropping, expect support circa 15300 and 15150.  On a big plunge there'd be support around 14900.  In other words, these would the levels at which to consider covering shorts.

We're already effectively short the overall market as per previous postings, and if we do close those positions we'll post the fact here.  



  



We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.


To be notified when this blog is updated : Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a blog entry only contains general commentary.

Vector Group (VGR) Chart Study

Below is a chart of Vector Group (VGR).

Technical traders, especially those interested in big dividends, may want to keep an eye on this one for a possible upside break-out. 

Note that in addition to the 9.5% annual cash dividend (based on current share price), there's also typically an annual 5% stock dividend in mid-September. 

We've owned VGR for years at an average price of around $15 (not diarized in this blog).  Markets are grossly overbought and overdue to decline, so if holding equities we'd prefer to get paid to do so. 

It's not without its risks, but it's right for us.  Only you can determine if it's right for you, however if you don't know it then forgo it.   







We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.


To be notified when this blog is updated : Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a blog entry only contains general commentary.

ONCS Chart Study, Newmont Mining (NEM) Update, Canada's Small Step In A Prudent Direction, Pandemic Of Pension Woes

On Monday, ONCS (OncoSec Medical Inc.) closed above the downtrend shown in green:

Some may find this compelling reason for a technical trade long position.  We're already long ONCS at $0.26 (not diarized in this blog), purely as a speculation.  We've no opinion about the company, its operations or prospects. 

It's been rising on speculation and hype over its Phase II Melanoma Trial.  Typically in this type of situation a stock will keep rising until bad news emerges and it tanks into oblivion.  Of course they might have good trial results and longs could get rich quick.  Here's the corporate site: Oconosec Medical 


Newmont (NEM) has (again) closed below our $27 stop.  Unlike last time, when a fluke delayed us taking this loss and provided more hope, it seems a given NEM will be below $27 in the morning and if so we'll close the position.  Based on Tuesday's close, we'll lose about $1 or 3.5%   We could've booked as much as a 13.5% on it a couple weeks ago, but we were going for a much bigger score given how far gold, silver and related stocks have fallen.

We wrote this a month ago, and it remains our thinking on the topic: "while it's both disappointing and disconcerting that NEM has continued to slide despite stock markets going higher and gold and silver bouncing a little, we're not so much worried for this loss as we are for the remaining long positions relating to gold and silver."

We still hold those other positions, and we're still optimistic that a bigger bounce is underway.  We're not going to hold additional risk via this underperformer however. 

NEM is still slightly above a 12-year uptrend we illustrated on July 10 via the chart below.  We wrote that "those not overexposed to miners or precious metals may wish to hold long above that red line."  Currently that'd mean holding on closes above $25.

Canada takes another very small step in a prudent direction: CMHC cools mortgage market with new cap for banks

Chicago sees pension crisis drawing near

Pandemic of pension woes is plaguing the nation

Pensions implosion is an international problem, as is documented at the Pension Tsunami site.

We receive no remuneration or incentive directly or indirectly in any way, shape, or form for buying or selling the positions we do, or for mentioning any positions or publicly traded companies in this blog. If we hold existing positions we divulge the fact. This blog is merely a diary of some of our thoughts and trades and is in no way whatsoever to be considered investment advice of any kind. Always without fail consult a competent, experienced, and honest broker or investment advisor before making any investment or speculative decisions.

Please presume that we, she, he, I, it, them, they, us and you are purely fictional characters and that everything written in this blog is satire intended for comedic amusement only, and not to be taken seriously in any way. Just like "real" analyst proclamations. Thank you.


To be notified when this blog is updated : Please e-mail christianguinness@hotmail.com with "Subscribe to blog" in the subject line or click here to do so automatically if your computer is configured accordingly. We have never shared our mailing list with anyone, nor will we. Please note that we only send update notifications when a trade idea is diarized or updated materially, not if a blog entry only contains general commentary.